May 30: Rain To Return On Tuesday

After drier than average conditions during the past 1-2 weeks, it appears that rain and thunderstorms are going to finally make a return to the area. Before this happens, we need to go through another warm day, and after the rain and storms move through, the warmth should not end yet, in fact it may intensify.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be another warm day across the area. High temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 80s inland and in the NYC area with a few lower 90s west and SW of NYC, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Long Island and S CT, and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate coast.

Despite partly sunny skies, a cold front approaching from our west may bring an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the day, though the majority of the storms should stay to our west. While a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is not expected, any storm that does form has the potential to become strong or potentially locally severe, especially in the western areas.

Mid To Late Week: Wet Tuesday, Warm Up To Follow?

By Tuesday, the cold front should move through the area. During the afternoon and overnight hours, periods of rain and thunder are likely, and some storms may also become strong or locally severe. At least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected, with locally lower or higher amounts depending on where the heavier thunderstorms form. High temperatures are going to be in the lower to mid 80s.

The air mass behind this cold front should not be colder; in fact, temperatures should warm up behind this cold front. On Wednesday, high temperatures should slightly warm into the mid to upper 80s.

There is some uncertainty on how warm Thursday gets. If the warmer case scenario verifies, which has been shown several times on the models, a southwest wind combined with warm 850 mb temperatures would lead to high temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s across most of the area. However, a few models have gone against this idea, keeping the warmer air to our south with high temperatures in the 80s. While at this time, I am expecting temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday, temperatures could end up warmer.

Another cold front then approaches the area by Friday, bringing another potential round of rain and thunderstorms. While a colder air mass is expected behind this front, it should weaken by the time that it reaches the area, and as a result, temperatures are not going to be much colder, cooling down by at least 5-10 degrees.

May 27: Very Warm, Then Stormy

Blog Notes: The 5-day forecast for Long Island and southern Connecticut has now been added. At this time, it is an experimental forecast, so it may be several degrees off, though that should be for a week at most. Also note that next week, once I post my hurricane season outlook, some changes will be made to the blog, including changing the Stormy Weather Outlook page to a Severe Weather/Tropical page.

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Today was mainly cloudy across the area, though temperatures were also slightly colder, in the lower to mid 70s. The next few days, though, should begin to become slightly warmer, with Monday bringing 90+ degrees once again to the area.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should continue with the comfortable temperatures, ranging from the mid to upper 70s for both the interior areas and NYC, to the lower to mid 70s for Long Island and the immediate coast. The rest of the region should also have similar temperatures, with most places in the Northeast also in the 70s.

Mainly cloudy skies are still expected to continue through tomorrow, with a weak disturbance to our south. This disturbance may cause an isolated shower or thunderstorm, however more widespread thunderstorms are not expected.

Sunday And Monday: Dry, Very Warm

By Sunday, the isolated storms should have left the area with mainly sunny skies, and a warmer air mass should be moving in as well. Due to this, temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s across the area, and a few isolated locations may reach 90 degrees.

With the warmer air mass remaining in place, along with mainly sunny skies and a SW wind, Monday should be the warmest day of this warm spell. High temperatures are going to rise into the 90s away from the coast, possibly reaching the mid 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Long Island and the immediate coast should stay in the 70s and 80s.

Longer Range: Stormy Tuesday, Colder Afterwards

By Tuesday, a cold front should approach from our west. It should reach the area late enough in the day that high temperatures still manage to rise into the 80s, bringing thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, in the late afternoon and evening hours. There is still some uncertainty on the severe storm potential during this time period, as the latest GFS runs have a decent amount of CAPE and LI, but barely any shear, which may limit this potential.

By Wednesday, there should be slightly colder temperatures with partly sunny skies, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By late next week, however, uncertainty returns with the next storm. It is likely that a storm should form during this time period, but where it goes remains a question at this time, which may range from moving through the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast.

May 27: Warmth Returns On Sunday

Today's storms ended up being slightly further east than expected, which led to a round of thunderstorms in the immediate NYC area, though the severe thunderstorms stayed in western New Jersey, as expected. High temperatures today were colder than yesterday, and tomorrow should continue to cool down, though there should be another warm up by the longer range.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be relatively chilly compared to today. Unlike today, when high temperatures were in the 70s and 80s, tomorrow's high temperatures should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. The immediate coast should be slightly colder, in the mid to upper 60s.

The colder temperatures are also due to the cloud cover that is expected. While only a few scattered showers are possible, more widespread rain is expected for the central and southern Mid Atlantic, along with the risk of thunderstorms.

Weekend Outlook: Sunny And Warm

After the stormy conditions today and the chilly temperatures tomorrow, the Memorial Day Weekend should be much better. Saturday should still be mostly cloudy with the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though temperatures should return into the mid 70s.

By Sunday, temperatures should warm up at a faster rate as a warmer air mass moves into the area. High temperatures are expected to be generally in the mid 80s, locally lower or higher.

Early To Mid Week: Very Warm Start, Then Colder

As the warm air mass continues to push into the area, Monday is expected to be the warmest day of this time frame. High temperatures should rise into the lower 90s once again, with some places possibly seeing the mid 90s. Meanwhile, a storm well to our north and west is going to bring a cold front towards our area, leading to more clouds on Monday night.

There is some uncertainty on when the cold front moves through, though at this time, I am leaning towards the slightly slower solution, where the cold front moves through on Tuesday, bringing thunderstorms throughout the day with high temperatures in the mid to potentially upper 80s. Afterwards, a colder air mass should approach the area, cooling the temperatures back into the 70s for the middle of next week.

May 27 Storm Updates

In this section, brief updates will be posted for the severe weather outbreak that is expected to affect the western end of the area, including Sussex and Orange counties. Some storms are possible east of that area, though if any storms do reach places east of north-central New Jersey, they should not be severe.

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7:32 PM: The last of the thunderstorms in the immediate NYC area are now about to exit the area from Stated Island, with moderate rain and thunder affecting parts of northern New Jersey, especially around the I-78 corridor. The thunderstorms in western New Jersey are still maintaining their intensity, producing heavy rain, strong wind gusts and hail, and should reach the Trenton area, as well as the rest of central NJ within the next hour.

Unless there is any immediate change, this is going to be the last storm update for tonight. Today's update should probably be posted late tonight, though I may not have enough time to create a full update.

7:02 PM: Thunderstorms have reached the New York City area, with a line of storms having recently formed, affecting western Long Island, Central Park, and Jersey City. A strong thunderstorm is currently approaching Jersey City, producing heavy rain and potentially small hail.

Heavier storms continue to affect Somerset and Morris counties, and are expected to move out of that area within the next 1/2 to 1 hour.


6:33 PM: There are currently two areas of concern. The first is with a storm cell currently intensifying near Franklin, NJ (Sussex county). This cell is moving SSE, and should enter northern Morris county within the next 1/2 hour.

The second and bigger area of concern is in northern Warren county, where two intense storms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rain are located. These storm cells are moving SSE, and should affect the southern half of Warren county within the next 10-20 minutes.

5:48 PM: An area of heavy thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail is currently affecting Orange county, and should reach Sussex and western Passaic counties within the next 1/2 hour. Locally heavy rain is possible out of these storms, reaching 1/2 inch in the heavier cells.

These storms may also reach Bergen County and the immediate NYC area, however they should weaken by then and produce light to moderate thunderstorms, locally heavy.

May 26: Some Storms Tomorrow, Then Colder

Today was the warmest day so far this year, with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 90s across most of the area. A few places even reached the upper 90s! Along with humidity, this made temperatures feel more like the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Fortunately, tomorrow should not be as warm, and in fact, Friday should already be much colder.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

High temperatures tomorrow are going to be colder due to the back door cold front approaching, the cloud cover and potential storms. High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s inland, in the lower to mid 80s for the immediate NYC area, in the mid to upper 70s for Long Island, and in the lower 70s for the immediate coast. Our area is in between the two extremes, as New England should be much colder, in the upper 60s and 70s, while the southern and central Mid Atlantic is warmer, in the lower to mid 90s.

The risk for storms in the eastern half of the area, including New York City, the north/west suburbs and Long Island has been significantly decreased, and we are now only looking at scattered thunderstorms there. Further west, though, there is a higher risk in place, which may include the westernmost parts of the region, such as Sussex and Orange counties. At this time, I mentioned the potential for strong storms for those areas.

Friday And Weekend Outlook: Colder, Then Warming Up

Friday should be much colder than Thursday, mainly due to a colder air mass around. High temperatures are only going to be in the mid to upper 60s across the area, which is nearly 10 degrees below the average high temperature. Low temperatures may drop into the upper 40s inland, otherwise low temperatures on Friday night should be in the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday and Sunday are going to steadily warm up. On Saturday, high temperatures should rise into the 70s, though by Sunday, a warmer air mass should return to the area. With mainly sunny skies in place, high temperatures are going to rise into the lower to mid 80s.

Early To Mid Week Outlook: Very Warm, Potential Storms

By Monday, the warm up should continue, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Tuesday or Wednesday, however, a cold front could move through, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms once again. Afterwards, there is some uncertainty on what happens, though it appears that temperatures may cool down once again.

May 25: Two Extremes Late This Week

Today was much warmer than yesterday, in fact it was slightly warmer than I expected, with some places reaching the upper 80s. Tomorrow should be even warmer than today, but a back door cold front will bring a quick end this warm and dry pattern.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day so far this year. With 850 mb temperatures nearing 18°C and mainly to partly sunny skies in place, temperatures are going to quickly rise into the 90s across most of the area, which combined with humidity, will not make for a comfortable day.

High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 90s inland, in the mid 90s for the north and western suburbs of NYC, in the lower to mid 90s for NYC, and in the mid to upper 80s for Long Island and southern Connecticut. The immediate coast should be slightly colder, in the lower 80s. While I am not expecting such, I would not be surprised to see isolated locations in the immediate NYC area reach the upper 90s. Meanwhile, with dew points in the 60s, temperatures are going to feel even warmer, leading to heat indices reaching the upper 90s or even 100 degrees.

Storm Potential: Severe thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow evening. As a back door cold front approaches from our north and east, relatively high parameters are going to lead to an isolated severe weather threat tomorrow evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk should be from NYC and further north and northeast, where some storms could become severe. Places further south and east may see an isolated storm, but the chances of that are lower than places further north.

Thursday And Friday: Two Opposites

Thursday is going to continue with the warmth on Wednesday, though it should be slightly colder, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The severe weather risk is also expected on Thursday, however as the cold front should already be near the area, the severe weather risk should be further south/west, covering most of the area as well as the rest of New Jersey. As with Wednesday, some storms may be severe, producing damaging winds and/or small hail.

By Friday, however, we are looking at the complete opposite. The cold front's timing has been pushed back, now expected to move through on Thursday night. As a result, Friday is going to be significantly colder, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, though if the latest models verify, temperatures may be even lower. Some rain is also possible early in the day, however there should not be strong/severe thunderstorms.

Weekend To Early Week Outlook: Chilly, Then Warming Up

Saturday should be another cool day. With clearing skies on Friday night, low temperatures are going to drop into the 40s away from the coast, and in the lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast. High temperatures should be warmer, returning into the lower to mid 70s.

By the late weekend to early week, however, temperatures should rapidly warm up as a warm air mass approaches from our west. On Sunday, high temperatures could potentially return into the lower 80s, and by Monday, even warmer temperatures are expected, with the mid to upper 80s returning.

May 24: Very Warm Week, Stormy End

Note: In the next few days, I am going to add Long Island and southern Connecticut to my 5-day forecasts, though my forecasts for Long Island are still going to be mentioned in the general discussion. In addition, I am planning on posting my hurricane season outlook sometime next week.

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During the past two days, clouds and scattered showers were observed across the area, with temperatures staying below average, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. During the next few days, however, we are looking at a completely different scenario, with 90s to return once again.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be partly sunny, which is an improvement from today's cloudy conditions. Meanwhile, temperatures are going to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, with a few mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. The coast is also expected to be warmer, with high temperatures in the mid 70s, with Long Island reaching the mid to upper 70s.

The rest of the region should also be dry with a high pressure in control. The only areas that should see rain are in northern Maine out of a weak storm in Canada, and in southern Virginia out of a hybrid storm that should affect parts of the Southeast. This storm should not affect our area, though if the conditions around it become more favorable, it may develop into a subtropical storm, the first of this year's hurricane season. At this time, the storm is not under conditions favorable enough for development.

Mid To Late Week Outlook: Hot, Then Stormy

During my Friday update, I slightly lowered my forecast temperatures, expecting the upper 80s on Wednesday, but noting that the lower 90s are still possible. This now does not appear to be the case, as the models did trend slightly warmer, and we are now looking at the return of high temperatures in the 90s.

Wednesday: During Wednesday, high temperatures should be able to rise into the lower 90s across parts of, if not most of the area, and parts of the immediate NYC area should also reach the mid 90s. The only places that should not get that warm are Long Island and the immediate coast, which should stay in the 80s. Along with dew points in the 60s to potentially lower 70s, humid conditions are expected, which could make the temperatures feel even warmer.

Meanwhile, we are also looking at thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, during this time period. As I have previously mentioned, a back door cold front is expected to affect the area. While it should not move through, it will bring the potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday evening and early overnight hours. With relatively high CAPE and LI values, there is also the potential for locally strong storms.

Thursday: The warm air mass is expected to remain in place, but due to this, the risk of thunderstorms extends through Thursday. The CAPE and LI are expected to remain high, and as such, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, some of which may become strong or severe. Temperatures should continue to be very warm, in the mid to upper 80s, though places that see rain or storms should have slightly lower temperatures. Lower 90s are expected once again for parts of the area.

Friday: A cold front from our northwest should move through on Friday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing, which would determine the high temperatures, and the range of possibilities is between the mid 70s and the mid 80s. At this time, I am leaning towards the lower 80s, but colder temperatures are possible if the cold front moves through earlier. The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues, though they are less likely to be strong or severe on Friday.

Longer Range: Colder Temperatures To Return

By the longer range, there is a relatively large model spread, though what is very likely is that it should be turning colder once again. A colder air mass to our northwest should approach, and while it should weaken by the time that it reaches us, colder temperatures are expected, with high temperatures below average, in the mid to upper 60s. In the case that mainly clear skies take place, low temperatures should also be unseasonably cool, reaching the 40s in parts of the area on Sunday morning.

There is uncertainty with precipitation during this time period, as some models, such as the GGEM and DGEX, show a storm affecting our area, bringing a chilly rain with high temperatures unseasonable for late May, in the 50s. The other models meanwhile keep the area dry, with high temperatures in the 60s. Whether the dry or wet solution verifies, May is going to end on a chilly note, which may last through early June as well.

May 21: Rain Chance Returns Sunday

Today was very warm across the area, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Starting from Sunday, however, the forecast becomes much more complicated, with significant changes made to yesterday's forecast.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should already be colder than today, and with partly sunny skies, should lead to a comfortable Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area except for Long Island, which should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

While the area should stay dry, clouds should begin to move in tomorrow afternoon ahead of a disturbance that should bring thunderstorms to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

**Longer Range Uncertainty**

For the longer range starting on Sunday, creating my forecast was harder than usual. The model solutions significantly differ on this time period on factors such as rainfall amounts and temperatures.

Instead of following the exact model solutions, I will look at each time frame in detail with the model solutions, then make my forecast based on my current thoughts on what the time period may end up being like. A summary of my thoughts can be found in my 5-Day Forecast, though the forecast will be discussed below in more details, including more possibilities.

Sunday And Monday (5/23-24):

For Sunday and Monday, the weak disturbance is expected to affect our area. What is likely at this time is that there should be cloudy skies, along with rain in at least parts of the area with the potential for locally heavy rain, which was also mentioned yesterday. What is uncertain, however, is where rain does or does not fall, the rainfall amounts if any, and the temperatures.

Reviewing the latest models, there is a wide variety in the rain amounts shown. The NAM, for example, has varied from a trace of rain on its 06z run, 1 inch on the 12z, 1/4 inch on the 18z, and more on the 00z. Looking at the overall scenario, we are going to have two rainmakers, the first being the disturbance to the west, and the second being an area of rain offshore that should move into at least parts of the area. As there is uncertainty with the exact rain location, I am currently going to mention a 60% chance of showers, locally heavy, which should produce 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain, locally up to 3/4 inch.

Temperatures are also going to be colder. On Sunday, due to the clouds and rain, high temperatures are going to be chilly, though the temperatures are going to depend on where it rains or not. At this time, I am expecting Sunday's high temperatures to be in the mid 60s with some upper 60s possible, though if there is more widespread rain, possibly heavy, high temperatures should end up in the lower to possibly mid 60s. On Monday, due to remaining clouds and potential rain showers, temperatures are going to remain chilly, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday And Wednesday (5/25-26):

During this time period, we are going to see much warmer temperatures than Sunday and Monday. It is likely that we should not see rain during this time frame, though the main question is how warm it gets. I previously expected temperatures in the range of the upper 80s to lower 90s, however the majority of the models have trended colder, and some model runs do not even bring temperatures over the lower 80s.

For now, I slightly lowered my forecast high temperatures on Tuesday, expecting the lower to mid 80s, though it is possible that it could be slightly colder. At this time, I am leaning towards the warmer solution on Wednesday, as with 850 mb temperatures warmer than today, as well as a north wind, I do not think that Wednesday should be colder than today. I am currently expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, though if the models do trend warmer once again, high temperatures could be in the range of the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday Night Through Friday (5/26 Night - 5/28):

During Wednesday night, the model solutions have consistently shown a back door cold front approaching from our east. There is still uncertainty with the exact timing, meaning that it could end up reaching the area between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, though it should bring slightly colder temperatures along with the potential for scattered showers or thunderstorms. There is still a spread on high temperatures, especially due to timing differences, which could end up from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. At this time, I am leaning slightly warmer, expecting high temperatures in the lower 80s, though this can still change.

By Friday, the models show the warmer air mass briefly returning into the area before another cold front moves through. Warmer temperatures are likely to return on Friday, with widespread 80s possible again, however if the current model solutions verify, thunderstorms may be possible. This is still in the longer range and may still change, however this time period does have the potential to bring storms to the area.

May 20: Potential Heat Spell Next Week

Unlike the past few days, today was much warmer, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s across most of the area. The relatively chilly pattern that we were previously in has ended, and this warm pattern is expected to continue, with potentially very warm temperatures next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be another warm and sunny day. High temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than today, reaching the mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 70s for the immediate coast.

The whole region should also be dry tomorrow. The only area looking at precipitation tomorrow should be far western Pennsylvania and West Virginia from an approaching storm that might bring a wet Sunday to our area.

Weekend Outlook: Warm Saturday, Stormy Sunday

The nice conditions should last through Saturday, with partly sunny skies and temperatures slightly colder, in the mid to upper 70s across the area. Meanwhile, however, the storm to our west is going to approach, bringing increasing clouds by the evening hours.

There is still uncertainty with the storm's impact on our area and how much rain, if any, it brings. We are most likely not looking at a widespread rain event but rather showers and thunderstorms, which may produce heavy rain. The question is where the best chance of rain is, as the model runs are all over the place, some bringing heavy rain to the area and others keeping the area dry. At this time, I am mentioning a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday in my 5-day forecast, along with a slight chance for showers and storms on Saturday night. High temperatures should also be colder, in the lower to mid 70s, though it could end up slightly warmer.

Next Week: Potential Heat Spell, Stormy Late?

As I previously mentioned, the model runs have been showing potentially well above average temperatures next week. This is now starting to become more likely, with 90+ degrees potentially returning to the area. Monday should be slightly warmer than Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Tuesday, the temperatures should continue to warm up, reaching the mid to potentially upper 80s across the area. Wednesday should be even warmer, with high temperatures potentially in the range of the upper 80s to lower 90s.

By late next week, however, stormy conditions may be on the return. The latest model runs have showed some factors for severe weather in place by then. While it is uncertain if there are storms or not, this time period needs to be watched for storm potential.

May 19: Warm Pattern To Begin Tomorrow

After the chilly days we had this month, tomorrow is going to be the turning point where the pattern becomes warmer. This time, however, the warmth is expected to last, and the temperatures may be some of the warmest this year.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be much warmer than today. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, in the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area including the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast. Long Island and southern Connecticut should have high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with isolated areas reaching 80 degrees.

Instead of cloudy skies, we are also looking at mainly sunny skies tomorrow. In addition, except for only northern New York, the rest of the region should also be dry, with a high pressure in control.

Friday Through Monday Forecast: Warmth Continues

On Friday, the warmth is expected to continue, and even warmer temperatures are expected for parts of the area. The air mass will be warm enough for temperatures to return into the 80s, however an onshore wind is going to limit the extent of the warmth near coastal areas. As such, I am expecting high temperatures in the mid 80s for the interior areas, in the mid to upper 80s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, in the lower to mid 80s for NYC, and in the lower to mid 70s for the immediate coast.

Between Saturday and Monday, however, a weak disturbance is going to bring potentially unsettled conditions. While the better chance of precipitation should remain to our west, scattered thunderstorms are possible in our area on these days. High temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, possibly slightly colder on Sunday.

Longer Range Outlook: Even Warmer Temperatures

For the longer range, it appears at this time that even warmer temperatures could reach the area. On Tuesday, high temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer, in the lower to mid 80s for the interior and in the mid 80s for the immediate NYC area.

By Wednesday, there is some uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, however it is likely that we should continue warming up. If the scenario currently shown by the models verifies, we could easily see 90+ degrees return to the area, with high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s and a few lower 90s, with Thursday potentially even warmer.

May 17: Chilly/Wet Tuesday, Late Week Warmth

Yesterday and today were both mild days, with high temperatures in the 70s, though there are more clouds today than yesterday, due to an approaching storm to our southwest. This week, however, should be the complete opposite of the past few days, starting out very chilly and wet and quickly turning much warmer and dry.

Tomorrow's Outlook / Rain Forecast:

Tomorrow should be the opposite of today. Instead of the warmth we've seen, the clouds and rain are going to significantly lower the temperatures. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s for the interior areas, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. These temperatures, like those of last week, are well below average, similar to the average temperatures during March.

In addition to the chilly temperatures, rain is expected to return. The NAM's previous runs were much drier for the area, however its latest run trended wetter. For my forecast, I am still leaning towards the wetter scenario shown by the other models, including the 18z NAM. While light rain should begin late tomorrow morning, moderate to heavy rain should only start to fall during the early afternoon hours, and last through early Wednesday morning. The rain should end by late Wednesday morning.

As this is a coastal storm, the heaviest rain should fall along the immediate coast, from southern New Jersey to eastern Long Island, where up to 2 inches, locally 2-3 inches of rain, are expected. Further inland, from Philadelphia to northeastern NJ and southwestern Connecticut, 1 to 1.5 inches of rain are expected. The interior areas should be north and west of the heaviest rain, where rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch are expected with locally higher amounts.



Late Week Forecast: Warmth Returns

Things are going to be changing relatively quickly after the rain on Tuesday. Wednesday is still expected to be mainly cloudy with a few showers possible early, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. By Thursday, however, a rapid warm up is expected, with high temperatures already reaching 80 degrees in parts of the area, with temperatures otherwise in the mid to upper 70s. Friday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, and in the mid to potentially upper 80s for the immediate NYC area.

By next weekend, however, uncertainty returns to the forecast. A low pressure could approach the area, which could bring thunderstorms to the area starting Saturday or Sunday. At the same time, temperatures could end up being slightly colder than Thursday and Friday due to the clouds and rain. More details will follow once there is less uncertainty on this time period becomes more.

May 15: Tuesday Storm Update, Heat To Return

Today was a very pleasant day across the area, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s. The next few days are expected to continue to be the same, though afterwards we are going to see colder temperatures return, along with rain.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be quite similar to today, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the area and mainly sunny skies. The rest of the region should also be mild, with temperatures in the 70s across most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

The only areas of precipitation tomorrow are expected to be in southern Virginia and southwestern West Virginia, where thunderstorms are expected from a storm that should affect our area on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Early To Mid Week Outlook

The models have changed since my last update, leading to several changes in the forecast. While the model solutions are not final yet, as there is still time for trending, a few of the solutions shown yesterday are less likely to verify.

Monday is now expected to be warmer than previously shown to be, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s for the interior areas, and in the mid 70s for the immediate NYC area. This should be slightly warmer than Sunday.

There is still a lot of uncertainty for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm. The GFS is suppressed with the storm, bringing less than a tenth of an inch of rain, though it is most likely too suppressed, as it goes against its other runs as well as some other models by taking the first low pressure east to ENE, leading into the Mid Atlantic instead of the Ohio Valley. The NAM runs are more reasonable, bringing at least 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain in the area. The latest NAM run, however, showed a completely different solution, where the storm retrogrades, and dumps 2-3 inches of rain on the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. While it is uncertain whether this becomes a trend or not, as this is the first run to show such a solution, it is something that needs to be watched.

At this time, I am making some changes to my forecast from yesterday, now expecting up to 1/4 inch on Monday night, with periods of rain, heavy at times on Tuesday afternoon, bringing 3/4 to 1 inch of rain. High temperatures on Tuesday should be chilly due to the rain, in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. During Tuesday night, periods of rain are possible early, bringing another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain, though this time frame is uncertain and may change. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. Please note that this is not a final forecast yet, these are my current thoughts, and may still change.

Late Week To Next Weekend: Heat Returns

After the last time we had very warm temperatures, in early May, it appears that very warm temperatures should return once again. While Thursday shouldn't be as warm, with high temperatures in the 70s, Friday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures returning into the 80s across the area. By Saturday, there is some uncertainty about the extent of the warmth, though if the warmer case scenario verifies, high temperatures could end up in the mid to upper 80s, with 90 degrees possible once again.

May 14: Heavy Rain Returns Next Week

Today continued to warm up even more than yesterday did, with the high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The severe storm forecast failed for the northern parts of the area, as the storms stayed further south, however there were heavy thunderstorms south of New York City, including a storm that moved through Staten Island, bringing some rain and thunder to Brooklyn.

This weekend is going to be a very nice one, with mainly sunny, dry and mild conditions, however these conditions are not going to last long as the next storm approaches the area.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should also be mild, like today was, however there are going to be dry conditions, unlike today. The storm that brought severe weather to our south today is going to bring some light rain to Maine, though the rest of the region should stay dry, with partly to mainly sunny skies.

Tomorrow morning should start out mild, unlike the past few days, with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the immediate NYC area. High temperatures are going to be slightly colder than today, in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area.

Early Week Outlook, Rain Returns

The dry conditions are expected to last through Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures staying in the lower to mid 70s across the area, with mostly sunny skies on Sunday and partly sunny skies on Monday. Afterwards, however, stormy conditions are expected to return. The latest models continue to show a storm producing heavy rain amounts affecting the area, bringing rain between Tuesday and Wednesday. While some model runs have reduced the rain amounts, most of the solutions continue to show 1 to 2 inches of rain for the area, with locally higher amounts.

It appears that the best chance for heavy rain should be on Tuesday, and as the warm front appears to stay to our south at this time, temperatures could end up on the chilly side once again, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. By Tuesday night, the heavy rain appears to move out of the area, though with the storm still around, precipitation should remain until Wednesday night, with the best chance for thunderstorms during the day on Wednesday.

As there is still some uncertainty, the smaller details from the solution above can still change, such as the temperatures and the rain amounts, though it is likely that we should see moderate to heavy rain during this time frame.

Longer Range Outlook: Warmth To Return

After the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday, which should bring colder temperatures, a warmer air mass should move into the area, quickly warming up the temperatures. By Thursday, high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s, and parts of the area could already reach 80 degrees. A more widespread area of 80+ degrees is possible by Friday, making it potentially the warmest day in the area since early this month.

May 14 Storm Updates

A thunderstorm outbreak is expected to affect the area this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the area. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service, with the SPC including our area in a slight risk for severe storms.

Brief updates on the storms, as well as short term forecasts, will be posted here once the storms reach our area. The 5-day forecast will be updated very soon, with today's update coming later tonight.

***6:30 PM Update: It appears that the thunderstorms no longer pose a risk to our immediate area, other than places in central NJ, which are currently affected by thunderstorms producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and hail. The severe thunderstorm coverage has now ended, and tonight's update will be posted in the next 1-2 hours.***

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6:01 PM: A small storm producing moderate to heavy rain and some thunder is currently located in northern Somerset county, moving east southeast. In the short term, this storm should move towards Plainfield in the next 30 minutes, and later on this storm could reach Staten Island in the next hour.


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5 PM Forecast Update: Decreased Thunderstorm Risk For NYC And Further North

The storms have not reached the area yet, however it appears that parts of the area may not even see any strong or severe thunderstorms. A line of thunderstorms is currently located in central PA, with storms to its south but unfavorable conditions for storms to its north. This line may still change course, though if it continues at its current direction, places from NYC and further north should not see thunderstorms tonight.

At this time, the highest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is for places south of New York City, though places from NYC and further north still need to watch out in case the storms do end up reaching those areas.

May 13: Stormy Conditions Tomorrow, Next Week

Today was already much warmer than yesterday, and even ended up warmer than expected, with parts of the immediate NYC area reaching 70 degrees. This warm up should continue, and for the short term, we should not have temperatures as chilly as the last 4 days.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Temperatures tomorrow should continue to warm up, with 80 degrees possible once again. The interior areas should have high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, the immediate NYC area in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and the lower to mid 70s for the immediate coast.

Instead of the mainly sunny skies we saw today, however, tomorrow should bring thunderstorms. In the morning hours, light rain is expected, though the afternoon should be drier, with mostly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, as the cold front approaches from our west, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe, potentially producing small hail and strong wind gusts. These storms should end by the overnight hours.

Weekend And Early Week Forecast:

This weekend should be mild and dry. The models have trended slightly warmer, with my latest forecast expecting high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the area, peaking on Saturday and Monday.

By Tuesday, however, stormy conditions return once again to the area. A storm to our southwest is going to approach, bringing along with it the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. The latest models have been consistent with the wet solution, showing 1 to 2 inches of rain, leading me to issue a Blue Alert for this storm, indicating a less than 30% chance of significant rainfall, which may be changed to an Orange Alert if the wet solution remains consistent. There is still some uncertainty with the timing, though it appears that the best time frame for the heaviest rain could be on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with additional showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

High temperatures on Tuesday will cool down once again into the 60s, due to the cloud cover and rain, though Wednesday should be slightly warmer, possibly returning into the 70s.

May 12: Warmer Temperatures To Return

Today's temperatures were unusually chilly across the area, in the mid to upper 40s with a few lower 50s. In fact, these temperatures even set record low maximum temperatures across parts of the area. Thankfully, the next few days should be much warmer, and unlike last weekend, this weekend should be dry and comfortable.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

The warmer weather that has been missing lately is on its way. While it shouldn't immediately get very warm, tomorrow should still be much warmer than today, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland, and in the lower to mid 60s for the immediate NYC area. In the other part of the region, however, temperatures in Washington DC and Virginia should be much colder, in the 60s instead of the 80s and 90s.

The region should also be dry, unlike today, when moderate rain fell in our area, with severe thunderstorms in Virginia and Maryland. The only area of rain should be in the western parts of the region, in western Pennsylvania and New York, from the same storm that will later affect our area on Friday.

Friday's Storm Potential, Warmer Temperatures

Friday continues to warm up even more, with high temperatures even returning well into the 70s across the area, something that was not seen since Saturday. The rest of the Mid Atlantic should be much warmer as well, with 90+ degrees returning to Virginia.

Meanwhile, the warm front moves through the area, which should set up the potential for thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, for Friday afternoon and evening. While showers and some thunderstorms are possible on Friday morning, there should be drier conditions in the early afternoon, with thunderstorms affecting the area during the evening hours.

Weekend To Next Week Outlook: Mild, Dry Start

This weekend, unlike last weekend, should be dry and comfortable. With a high pressure in place, we should see mainly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday, and in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday.

Monday is also expected to be mainly dry with high temperatures in the 70s, though there is indication that rain should return again afterwards. The latest model runs have been consistent in showing potentiall heavy rain, with the potential of 1-2 inches of rain. Despite there still being some uncertainty during this time period, rain and thunderstorms are expected to return by the middle of next week, with the potential for heavy rain amounts.

May 11: Chilly Weather Continues, Longer Range Outlook

Temperatures today remained 10-20 degrees below average, with high temperatures in the 50s across the area. Low temperatures were in the 30s for the suburbs of New York City, and even reached the upper 20s in Orange and Sussex counties! Tonight should be warmer than last night, with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, and in the lower to mid 40s for the immediate NYC area, however rain is going to affect the area tonight.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

The storm currently to our west is going to move through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing periods of light to moderate rain. The heaviest rain should fall in the northwestern parts of the area, with 3/4 to 1 inch of rain expected, with lighter amounts for the immediate NYC area, in the range of 1/2 to 3/4 inches. The rain should slowly begin to end by tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow should be the last of the very chilly days. High temperatures should be colder than today, in the upper 40s for thie interior areas, lower 50s for the north and west NYC suburbs, in the mid 50s for NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the immediate coast. To our north, temperatures should be colder, and in fact, it should even be cold enough for snow to fall in the Catskill mountains, with 1 to 3 inches of wet snow possible.

Additional Rain On Friday, Warmer Temperatures

Thursday should remain mainly cloudy with a few isolated showers possible, however temperatures should begin to warm up. High temperatures, while still below average, should be in the lower 60s for the interior areas, and in the mid 60s for the immediate NYC area. The immediate coast should stay colder, with high temperatures in the upper 50s. The chance for showers increases by the evening hours.

By Friday, another storm should affect the area. This storm, however, should be further north than tomorrow's storm, drawing warmer temperatures into our area. High temperatures should return into the 70s, with the potential for the mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area in the warmer scenario.

Thunderstorms are expected out of this storm early on Friday morning, as well as Friday afternoon and evening. Strong to potentially severe storms may also be possible on Friday evening, however there is still some uncertainty, so for now I am not mentioning any severe weather in the 5-day forecast, which will be updated later tonight.

Longer Range: Dry And Mild Weekend, Wet Weather Possibly Returns

After the cold front moves through on Friday night, temperatures should slightly cool down for Saturday, however this should not be a significant cool down. High temperatures should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday, and slowly warm into the lower to mid 70s on Sunday. Dry conditions are expected on both days.

By Monday, high temperatures should be similar to those of Sunday, however stormy conditions could potentially return. Despite a lot of uncertainty for this time period, the latest models did show rain affecting the area in some way, ranging from up to 1/2 inch of rain on the 18z GFS to 3-5 inches of rain on the 18z DGEX. While it is unknown how much rain falls, there is the potential for moderate to heavy rain and storms to return to the area between next Monday and Wednesday. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.

May 10: May Or March?

Yesterday was an unusually chilly day across the area, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, which combined with the wind, caused temperatures to feel even colder. These temperatures, being much colder than average, are similar to those of late March. While today did warm up a little, with high temperatures reaching the lower 60s in parts of the area, widespread long lasting warmth isn't expected to return soon.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

A cold morning is expected once again. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, in the mid to upper 30s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast, except for interior Long Island that should have lows in the upper 30s. High temperatures should be slightly colder than today, in the mid to upper 50s for the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the immediate NYC area. These temperatures are still at least 10 degrees below average.

Increasing clouds are expected as a storm approaches from our west. While this storm should produce light to moderate rain as it approaches the area, heavy rain is expected in western Pennsylvania. This area of heavy rain, however, should weaken as it approaches our area.

Chilly And Wet Wednesday

The storm in the Ohio Valley is going to move nearly due east, which should take it over our area by Wednesday. As a result, periods of light to moderate rain are going to fall between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, which should produce rain amounts around 1/2 inch, locally higher or lower. The highest amounts should be in the northwestern parts of the area.

In addition to the rain, chilly temperatures are also expected. As the warm front stays to our south, a very sharp temperature gradient should develop. While Washington DC has high temperatures in the lower 80s, with Philadelphia in the upper 60s, high temperatures for our area should be much colder, in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the interior, lower to mid 50s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid to upper 50s for NYC and closer to the coast. These temperatures are the average high temperatures in late March!

Dry Thursday, Stormy Friday

As the storm moves to our east on Thursday, temperatures are going to warm up. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s across the area, with dry conditions. Meanwhile, another storm is going to approach, however there is still a lot of uncertainty on this storm. The models are showing different solutions and timings with this storm, which range from upper 70s and severe weather on Friday to 50s and a few morning showers. As it is likely that we should see at least some rain out of this storm, in the 5-day forecast which will be updated shortly, I am mentioning a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Longer Range: Drier And Warmer Conditions

After Friday's potential storms, there is still uncertainty on Saturday's forecast due to the different model solutions for Friday, however it is likely that we should steadily warm up by the second half of next weekend, along with dry conditions. High temperatures should steadily rise into the lower 70s, and should stay there through early next week. Afterwards, there is some uncertainty as there is another storm in the region, however the models at this time keep it to our south. Despite the south solution, this storm needs to be kept an eye on, as it is still uncertain where it exactly tracks.

May 8: Windy, Cold, Then Stormy

For anyone who likes calm and dry weather, the next week is not going to be very pleasant. After this morning's storms, which produced rainfall amounts locally up to 1/2 inch of rain, windy conditions have already developed, and are expected to last through tomorrow night.

Winds tonight are expected to be in the range of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 to 55 mph. Some places near the coast and in Long Island may even see wind gusts up to 60 mph. This, combined with chilly temperatures in the 30s in the interior and lower to mid 40s for the New York City area, will make temperatures feel like the 30s tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be much more different than today. Instead of mild temperatures, colder temperatures are expected, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s for the interior areas and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate New York City area. Combined with windy conditions, it may feel colder, especially in the morning and evening hours.

Snow is going to make a brief return for the central and northern Northeast tomorrow. While our area should stay dry, the higher elevations of the Northeast should see wet snow with some accumulations, and even the lower elevations may see a little snow mixing in with the rain in the morning hours.

Cold Follows The Wind, Frost Expected

The wind should begin to calm down by Sunday night, however the temperatures are only going to get colder. With a cold air mass in place and mainly clear skies, low temperatures are going to drop into the lower 30s for the northwestern parts of the area, in the mid to upper 30s for the north and western suburbs of NYC, and in the lower 40s for New York City and closer to the coast. These temperatures, combined with a generally light wind, will result in wind chills in the 20s for the interior and in the lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area for Monday morning. Areas of frost are expected in the interor.

Monday should still be chilly, though temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than Sunday, in the upper 50s inland and in the lower 60s for the immediate NYC area. Overnight temperatures should still be cold, similar to those of Sunday night, and as the wind should calm down by then, widespread frost is expected in the interior. Tuesday is going to be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland, and in the lower to mid 60s for the immediate NYC area.

Wet Pattern To Follow

After the cold temperatures to start next week, a wet pattern will affect the area from Tuesday night until next weekend. The first wave of rain is expected to approach the area on Tuesday night and last through Wednesday afternoon, bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. At least 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain is possible out of this first wave, with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the warm front staying to our south, there is going to be a sharp temperature gradient, with southern NJ in the mid to upper 70s while our area is in the lower to mid 60s.

An area of high pressure briefly moves in on Thursday, providing drier conditions and chilly temperatures, in the lower to mid 60s for the highs. By Thursday night or Friday, another wave of rain is expected to affect the area. There is uncertainty on this wave's timing and location, though in the wetter case scenario, another 1/2 inch of rain could fall between Thursday evening and Friday evening. There is uncertainty with the smaller details afterwards due to a large model spread, though it is likely that additional rain and thunderstorms will continue to affect the area through next weekend.

May 7: Stormy Pattern Next Week

The past two days were very nice across the area, with partly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. Tomorrow should be the last of these days, as the pattern becomes colder, and eventually wetter.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be a wet day across the region. While most of the region should only see a little rain and thunderstorms, only the central and northern parts of the Northeast should see heavier rainfall. Our area should see some rain and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon hours, though they should be scattered, with clearing skies by the late afternoon.

In addition, snow returns to the forecast tomorrow night across the Northeast, where cold air approaching from the northwest will lead to high elevation accumulating snow, and even the lower elevations of central-northern New York and Pennsylvania may see a little snow.

Tomorrow should be the last mild day for the next few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and in the lower to mid 70s for the immediate New York City area. By the time that the cold front moves through, increasingly windy conditions should develop by the late afternoon and overnight periods, with sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Chilly Sunday, Interior Frost And Freeze Sunday Night

With the windy conditions on Saturday night, combined with chilly temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in the interior, upper 30s to lower 40s for the NYC suburbs, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC, temperatures should feel colder than they are, in the upper 20s to 30s, making for a cold Sunday morning.

Sunday should be a very chilly day, and along with the wind, the temperatures will feel like the average in early April. High temperatures should be generally in the mid to upper 50s across the area, with a few places in the immediate NYC area reaching the lower 60s, and the interior areas only peaking in the lower 50s.

As I have previously mentioned, frost and freeze may return to the interior areas. This scenario is now becoming more likely, with low temperatures expected to reach the freezing mark in the interior parts of the area on Sunday night. The immediate New York City area should be slightly warmer, though temperatures should still be quite cold, in the mid to upper 30s for the suburbs and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Next Week Outlook: Chilly Start, Wet Middle And End

Monday and Tuesday are going to steadily warm up, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area on Monday, and reaching the lower to mid 60s by Tuesday. Overnight lows should be in the 40s, with upper 30s possible in the interior. A few showers are possible in the western areas by Tuesday evening.

The rest of the week is going to be a different story. A storm approaching from our west is going to bring periods of rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday, and while there is uncertainty with the storm's track, there is the potential for 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain on Wednesday with locally higher amounts in the wetter case scenario, which at this time appears to be more likely. The other scenario is where the heaviest rain stays well to our north, with some showers and thunderstorms in our area.

Thursday should be drier, however there is more rain on the way. Several other areas of low pressure are going to approach the region, bringing a chance of rain and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

May 5: Thunderstorms To Return Tomorrow

With mainly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the lower 80s, today was a nice day across the area. While today was dry, tomorrow should not be the same.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

High temperatures tomorrow are expected to be slightly colder than today, around the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will move through during the day, however this should not make the temperatures much colder.

Tomorrow, however, should bring thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon hours. The cold front is going to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms, and while the heaviest storms should stay to our north and east, we should also get thunderstorms. With some severe weather factors in place, some storms could be locally strong or severe, however a widespread severe weather outbreak is not anticipated. The thunderstorms should exit by the late afternoon with clearing skies.

Friday And Saturday Storm, Rest Of Weekend Forecast

The models have started to come more into an agreement for the storm on Saturday, showing an area of rain moving to our north late on Friday night, with a cold front moving through on Saturday afternoon, bringing through showers and thunderstorms, which some may become strong. There is still some uncertainty, as the GFS brings the cold front through earlier, on Saturday morning, however at this time I am thinking that the GFS is too fast with the overall pattern during this time period. While I am considering the GFS an outlier for now, it is possible that this solution could verify, and the front would then move through on Saturday morning.

Sunday should be a very chilly day across the area. With a colder air mass in place, high temperatures should only be in the mid to upper 50s in the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for NYC and closer to the coast. Overnight lows should also be cold, in the mid to upper 30s inland, and in the lower to mid 40s for the New York City area.

Storm Potential Returns Next Week

Monday and Tuesday are also expected to be chilly, though temperatures should slowly warm up, already reaching the lower to mid 60s by Tuesday, possibly even warmer. By late Tuesday night, however, the latest models are indicating that a relatively large storm is going to move into the area, bringing period of rain and thunderstorms between Wednesday and Friday. There is still uncertainty as this is in the longer range, however looking at the models, this storm has the potential to produce yet another heavy rain event across the area. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.

May 4: Colder Temperatures To Return

Note: I apologize for the delay, though my May Outlook has now been posted in the Long Range Forecasts section. I am expecting a wetter and slightly colder than average month.

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Today was mild across the area, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, though there was not as much humidity as yesterday had. A few isolated storms were observed in the area, however the worst storms were to our north, from central New York to western Massachusetts and Connecticut, where there were over 70 significant wind reports!

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Despite the cold front passing through, temperatures won't get colder, in fact they may even be slightly warmer. High temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the interior areas, and in the lower to mid 80s for the New York City area, except for the immediate coast, which should have high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, leading to a very nice and comfortable day, especially with the temperatures. Other than a few thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania and New York, the rest of the region should also stay dry.

Late Week Outlook: Rain On Thursday, Dry Friday

By late Wednesday night, the same cold front that will bring the thunderstorms to western Pennsylvania and New York should move towards the area. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are likely between late Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, though strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected. As a result of the earlier passage of the cold front than previously expected, Thursday's temperatures will also be colder than previously expected, in the upper 70s to lower 80s instead of the mid to upper 80s.

Friday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, however a storm to our west is going to bring additional rain and thunderstorms starting on Friday night. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing, location and whether it will be able to produce severe thunderstorms or not, however it is likely that the storm should track near the Great Lakes, bringing warmer temperatures that may reach 80 degrees in parts of the area, and it should produce rain sometime between Friday night and Saturday night. As a result, I am mentioning occasional rain and thunderstorms for late Friday night and Saturday, with a chance of thunderstorms for Saturday evening.

Colder Temperatures Return Sunday, Next Storm Potential

After Saturday's storm exits, temperatures are going to cool down. Saturday night should already become colder, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the interior areas, in the mid to upper 40s for the New York City suburbs, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for New York City. Sunday should be the coldest day during this time period, with high temperatures in the generally in the mid to upper 50s, potentially colder in the interior areas and warmer in the immediate NYC area.

Sunday night should also be quite cold across the area, with low temperatures in the 30s in the interior areas. The immediate NYC area should stay with lows in the 40s, however low temperatures should be colder than Saturday night. Monday begins to slightly warm up, with high temperatures in the lower 60s for most of the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm up steadily until the middle of next week, likely reaching the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile, the models show a storm approaching from our west, however there is still uncertainty on the smaller details such as its location and timing. Despite the uncertainty, rain could potentially return to the area by mid to late next week.

May 3: Severe Weather Bust, Late Week Update

Today was yet another warm and humid day, with high temperatures generally in the 80s across the area. Thankfully, tomorrow should not be as humid as today, with dew points dropping into the 50s.

The severe weather forecast, however, did not end up as expected. Due to the cold front being further west than expected, we did not have much of a trigger for the storms, which resulted in only 4 severe weather reports across the region, all of them being wind reports. Instead of severe weather, an area of heavy rain fell from east central Pennsylvania to New York City and northeastern New Jersey, producing locally up to 2 inches of rain. Another line of rain and thunderstorms was observed in the afternoon hours as the cold front moved through.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

While temperatures should be only slightly colder than today, it won't be very humid tomorrow, with dew points in the 50s. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, except for the immediate coast that should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Partly Sunny skies are expected tomorrow, however a weak storm to our north could result in isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The greater risk for thunderstorms should be to our north, into northern New York. Across the region, thunderstorms are also possible in southeastern Virginia, where humid conditions should continue.

Wednesday And Thursday: Warmth Continues

As previously mentioned, warm conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. Wednesday should have high temperatures similar to tomorrow, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday should be warmer than Wednesday, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.

There have been some changes with the model solutions for the late week to early weekend period. As there is still uncertainty, the forecast for late next week at this time is a lower confidence forecast, however there should be a better idea of what should happen over the next few days. Instead of showing a cold front moving through on Friday, the current models show a weak cold front moving through on Thursday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Friday is slightly colder, though Saturday warms up ahead of another storm that is shown to track in the southeastern Great Lakes, bringing rain and thunderstorms.

As there is uncertainty with the timing of the first cold front, I am mentioning a 50% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday throughout the day. At this time, I am keeping Friday with partly sunny skies, but there is the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. There is uncertainty with the second and stronger storm's timing and location, though it is likely that we see rain out of this storm, so for now, I am expecting rain and thunderstorms on Friday night and Saturday. As there is uncertainty with the storm's location, it could end up further south or north, which is an important factor along with timing in order to determine whether there could be any strong or severe thunderstorms with this cold front.

Longer Range Outlook: Much Colder

A much colder air mass is going to move in behind the storm on Saturday. While Saturday night should not be too cold, Sunday is going to be much colder. High temperatures are expected to be only in the mid to upper 50s in the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for New York city and closer to the coast. This is nearly 10-15 degrees below the average high temperatures!

Sunday night is currently expected to be the coldest night. Low temperatures are going to fall into the 30s across most of the Northeast and the interior Mid Atlantic, with lower 40s for New York City. If conditions are favorable, frost and freeze may return to the interior areas.

May 2 Storm Updates

A few brief storm updates will be posted here, including short term forecasts.

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10:11 PM: An area of heavy thunderstorms is currently approaching the Allentown, PA area. While the storm's exact track is uncertain, it may affect Sussex and Orange counties with moderate to heavy thunderstorms in the next 1-2 hours.

May 2: Warm Week Ahead, Stormy End

As yesterday's forecast expected, today ended up being very warm and humid, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. There were more clouds than sun today, however places that had breaks in the cloud cover were able to warm up quickly.

Meanwhile, there were some last minute changes with the storm set up that changed the forecast for the next few days. The storm and cold front ended up further west than expected, leading to a delay in the severe weather timing, and smaller severe weather probabilities. In addition, as a result, tomorrow should also be warm and humid instead of colder.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

As mentioned, tomorrow should also be warm. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the interior areas, and in the lower to mid 80s for the immediate New York City area away from the coast. With dew points in the upper 60s, tomorrow should also be humid.

The cold front, which has been delayed, is going to move through the area late tomorrow. It should produce periods of rain and thunderstorms, though there shouldn't be any severe thunderstorms.


Mid-Late Week And Weekend Outlook

Tuesday should be the "coldest" day of next week, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the area. This would still be several degrees above the average high temperature for this time of the year. As a warmer air mass begins to move into the area, high temperatures on Wednesday rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few mid 80s are even possible.

Thursday should continue warming up, with high temperatures returning into the mid to upper 80s. As a storm organizes well to our north and west, it is expected to draw in much colder air to its northwest, with its cold front moving through between Friday and Saturday. This cold front is expected to produce thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening, with the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

After the cold front moves through, much colder temperatures return into the area. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with Sunday cooling down even further, bringing high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.

May 1: Storms Tomorrow, Longer Range Update

Note: There will be an update tomorrow evening. If there are any storms before 10 PM, I will post short term forecasts for the storms.

Today was a very warm day across the area, with temperatures well into the 80s inland, reaching the lower 90s in some places, however my forecast was too warm for NYC and NE NJ. With the expectation of a SW wind, temperatures were supposed to rise into the upper 80s-lower 90s north and west of NYC, and in the mid-upper 80s in NYC, however a southeast wind prevented temperatures from rising too high, and caused the temperatures to drop by 3-5 PM, when we would typically see the warmest temperatures.

Tomorrow's Outlook: Severe Weather

Tomorrow is also expected to be warm, however how warm it gets is a question, especially with today's unexpected southeast wind causing lower than expected temperatures in parts of the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, however it may be slightly higher or lower, depending on the amount of sunshine and wind direction.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the main problem across the region. Until the late afternoon hours, we should stay dry, with severe storms to our west, in Pennsylvania into south central New York. By the evening, however, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area as the cold front approaches. The storms may be strong to severe, though the worst storms should stay to our west.

Below is my regional forecast for the severe storm potential tomorrow. There is some uncertainty with the exact placement of the 30% risk area, so for now I have a widespread area, which could be narrowed down.



Longer Range Outlook: Warmth, Then Storms

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. Locally heavy rain is possible, however severe thunderstorms are not expected. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue to cool down, with high temperatures returning into the mid 70s.

By Thursday, however, much warmer temperatures should return to the area as a storm organizes to our west and pulls in much warmer air. Temperatures return into the mid 80s for high temperatures on Thursday, with Friday about the same, if not slightly warmer.

The cold front is expected to affect the area between Friday and Saturday, however this front could end up being stronger than the cold front moving through on Monday, as there is a sharp gradient between the warm air mass in place and a much colder air mass coming from the north and west. Thunderstorms are expected on both days, and while still uncertain, there is also the potential for severe thunderstorms. After the cold front moves through, temperatures become much colder, with high temperatures likely returning into the 60s.