Mar 31: Weekend And Next Week Warmth

***New Blog Additions***

I am now adding 2 new pages to the blog. The first page, titled "Stormy Weather Outlook," is a brief summary of the weather for the next week or two, which also mentions any possible storm that might affect the area in the longer range. The second page, titled "Storm Summary," is going to show observed rain or snow amounts from previous storms in the area, occasionally with some radar archieves.

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The rain and chilly conditions have finally ended across the area, with dry conditions across the area today. Parts of Pennsylvania yesterday, even the Philadelphia area, ended up seeing sleet and some wet snow out of this storm, with several inches of wet snow accumulating in isolated areas in northeastern Pennsylvania.

Tonight should be relatively chilly, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s inland, and in the lower to mid 40s in the New York City area. Tomorrow will already be much warmer, with highs in the lower 70s across the area except for Long Island and the immediate coast, which should stay in the upper 50s and 60s.

Weekend Warm Spell

Friday should be the warmest day across the area since March 20, when temperatures peaked in the mid 70s in parts of the area. While the immediate coast should stay in the 60s, the rest of the area should reach the lower to mid 70s, with the upper 70s in the western half of New Jersey. Saturday and Sunday are both going to be very warm in the area, with highs in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast, and even the immediate coast might reach the upper 60s. High temperatures could reach the 80s up to central or even north central New Jersey.

Overnight temperatures, meanwhile, will be much warmer than they previously were, and should be in the lower to mid 50s across the area except for the immediate coast, which should be slightly colder.

Next Week Outlook

As a weak cold front approaches the area, temperatures are going to be lower on Monday, in the lower 70s. No rain is expected out of this cold front, and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected at most out of this cold front. High temperatures on Tuesday will be only in the mid to upper 60s, however as another storm organizes itself well west of the area, temperatures are going to be much warmer on Wednesday, as warmer air re-enters the area.

High temperatures on Wednesday and possibly Thursday are likely to be back into the 70s, and even 80 degrees might be possible in some places in the warmer case scenario. The next storm might affect the area late next week, with some rain possible, however details are still uncertain at this time.

Mar 30: Heavy Rain Ending, Records Broken

The worst part of the storm ended up arriving later than I originally expected, in the morning to late morning hours instead of the late overnight to early morning hours. Despite the timing, the storm still had the same effects, with an additional 1-4 inches of rain falling across the area, and the heaviest amounts falling over Long Island and Connecticut.

For the short term, areas of light rain with occasional moderate to heavy rain are expected to move through the area, with additional rainfall until this evening up to 1/4 inch, with locally higher amounts. Afterwards, cloudy skies are expected until tomorrow with an occasional rain shower.

Wettest March On Record

Today's storm is the third significant rainstorm this month to affect the area, after March 12-15 and March 22-23. With this storm added to the rain totals so far this month, parts of the New York City area have broken their records for the wettest March on record, including JFK and La Guardia airports in New York, Islip in Long Island, and Bridgeport in Connecticut. Central Park is at least 0.3 inch of rain away from breaking their record of 10.54 inches.

The stormy pattern this month continued the active pattern from February, when consistent heavy snowstorms set the record for the snowiest February and the snowiest month on record, though unlike February, the precipitation fell in the form of rain, not snow.

Fortunately, for areas that were hit hard with flooding, the stormy pattern is ending for now with this storm. After the storm exits, a high pressure stays near the area, with no significant rainfall expected in the next 7-10 days.

Weekend, Next Week Forecast

It now appears that the warm spell will not be as warm as I originally expected it to be, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, not the upper 70s to lower 80s, and the warmest day being Saturday, not Sunday. My Short Term Forecast, now extended to 5 days, shows high temperatures in the 70s this weekend, peaking on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.

Temperatures start cooling down early next week, with Monday's highs in the upper 60s. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday with scattered rain showers, with the high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. On Wednesday, temperatures should start to warm up again, reaching the mid to upper 60s.

Mar 29: Heavy Rain, Wind And Flooding Tonight

A major storm with heavy rain and flooding is currently affecting the area, with rain total between 1 inch in parts of northern New Jersey, to as much as 3 inches in southern New Jersey, parts of Long Island and Connecticut. The storm is expected to continue to affect the area until Wednesday, with each part of the storm below.

Late Afternoon To Evening Forecast:

For the evening hours, it appears that places west of New York City should stay dry with an isolated shower or two, however it will be a completely different story in the eastern half of Connecticut and Long Island. Heavy rain is expected to continue through the evening hours, with up to 1/2 inch of rain possible between 4 and 8 PM.

Tonight To Tuesday Morning Forecast:

The worst part of the storm is expected to arrive late tonight. The low pressure is expected to intensify and move towards the area, causing windy conditions to develop, with gusts up to 50-60 mph possible along the coast. Along with the wind, heavy rain is expected to continue in Long Island, while moderate to heavy rain re-enters New Jersey after midnight. The heaviest rain is expected to be in Long Island and Connecticut, where an additional 2-3 inches of rain are possible until late tomorrow morning with locally higher amounts, with the lightest rain in western New Jersey, where less than 1.5 inch of rain is expected.

Tuesday Afternoon, Rest Of Storm:

By Tuesday afternoon, the worst of the rain should have passed the area. Light to occasionally moderate rain is still expected, though winds may still remain an issue, and may not calm down until Tuesday evening. Any leftover light rain should end on Wednesday morning.

Since my last update on Saturday, the models shifted the heaviest rain axis to Long Island and Connecticut, which is what we are also seeing now with the heaviest rain located over those areas. Including what fell so far, a storm total of 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected in Long Island and Connecticut, with locally higher amounts up to 7-8 inches possible.

New York City and northeastern New Jersey should still get heavy rain, but not as much as Long Island, with the storm total including what fell so far between 2 and 4 inches. Northwestern New Jersey should end up with a storm total of at least 2 to 3 inches of rain.

Warm Spell For Next Weekend

Temperatures are expected to warm up quickly after the storm leaves, already reaching the upper 60s on Thursday. Friday will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s across the area except for the immediate coast. Some places may reach 80 degrees on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday will be slightly colder, as a cold front approaches the area, however at this time it appears that only light rain will fall out of this cold front.

Mar 27: Heavy Rain And Flooding Problems Return

After a very cold morning, with temperatures dropping into the 20s across most of the area, and even some 10s in the northernmost parts of the area, temperatures should warm up through the afternoon, howevere today will still be chilly, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.

Tonight, while still chilly, won't be as cold as last night, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area, in the mid to upper 20s further north, and in the lower to mid 20s in the northwestern areas. Tomorrow should be warmer than today, with highs in the lower 50s, and increasing clouds through the day.

Monday And Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential (Updated in the afternoon)

When updating the forecast on Saturday afternoon, I made some revisions to the short term forecast, including extending the rain into Tuesday and adding heavy rain on Monday night. Heavy rain will continue into Tuesday morning, which will only extend the duration of the rain event, making any flooding problems even worse.

The storm is expected to start on Sunday night, with light to moderate rain starting in the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be steady at first in the mid to upper 40s across the area, and are expected to rise into the lower 50s by Monday morning. On Monday, heavy rain will develop and is expected to affect the area during the day, producing rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts.

From the latest model runs, it seems that there won't be a break in the rain on Monday night, but the heavy rain should continue. There may be a break in the heavy rain on Monday evening, though it is expected to resume afterwards, after another area of heavy rain moves onshore as the low pressure intensifies offshore. As a result, heavy rain redevelops overnight on Monday, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain and locally higher amounts. As the low pressure approaches on Monday night, strong winds should become an issue once again, with gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.

On Tuesday, the rain may still be moderate to heavy in the morning, though lighter rain should fall by the afternoon hours. An additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible, with the highest rain amounts north and east of New York City. The windy conditions are expected to continue through the day, ending on Tuesday night. Any remaining rain showers should end by Wednesday morning, with clearing skies on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday will be colder, in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, with warmer temperatures returning on Wednesday, in the mid to upper 50s.

This storm is expected to have a lot of moisture involved, which will help produce heavy rain amounts. By the time that the storm ends on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, at least 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is expected to be a problem once again for areas that were hit hard with flooding in the previous storms. Winds may also become a problem once again, with wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible at this time.




Very Warm Temperatures For Next Weekend

After the storm exits on Wednesday, a warm air mass is expected to enter the area. Along with it, temperatures are expected to quickly warm up during the late week. By Thursday, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, already reaching the lower to mid 70s by Friday. Temperatures continue to warm up even beyond that, reaching near 80 degrees by Saturday, which is the average high temperature in early June! Temperatures are likely to reach at least the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday, though afterwards the temperatures should cool down a little.

Mar 26: Soaking Rain Monday, Summer-Like Heat Follows

The storm this morning failed to bring snow to much of the area, as temperatures were not cold enough. Yesterday, I noted the potential for some flakes away from the coast if it was cold enough, however temperatures ended up warmer than the models showed, and with precipitation having quickly moved out over the morning, we did not end up with snow.

It is currently mainly sunny across most of the region, with more clouds further east. Skies are expected to be clear tonight, and with the cold air mass in place, temperatures should drop into the 20s overnight, and into the 10s further north and west. Tomorrow will be sunny and chilly, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area.

Several Inches Of Heavy Rain Possible On Monday

As I have mentioned over the past few days, a storm with heavy rain should impact the area on Monday, with the potential for over an inch of rain. At this time, light rain should start falling on Sunday night, and should intensify overnight and become moderate to heavy on Monday. The heaviest rain should end by Monday evening, though additional rain is expected through at least Tuesday afternoon.

The latest model solutions except for the GFS are showing a very wet solution with this storm, with some models showing up to 2 inches of rain across the area. This storm should be a relatively strong storm, and while there is still uncertainty on small details, such as the axis of heavy rain and the amounts, rainfall amounts of potentially 1 to 3 inches are possible on Monday, with locally higher amounts.

Summer-Like Heat To Follow Rain

After the rain ends, despite Tuesday still being chilly, Wednesday should be much warmer, with high temperatures already reaching the upper 50s to potentially the lower 60s for parts of the area. Thursday's high temperatures are expected to be in the 60s, and Friday may bring the return of 70+ degrees to the area.

Afterwards, though, it's only going to get warmer. While most models have not reached the weekend time frame yet, we should see temperatures well into the 70s this weekend, with 80+ degrees even possible in the warmer case scenario. While there is still uncertainty on exactly how warm it gets, this warm spell should bring an early taste of summer for the area.

Mar 25: Light Snow Potential Tomorrow

Rain, Some Snow Through Tomorrow

We are currently seeing cloudy skies, with areas of light rain approaching. This should develop into a steady, moderate rain overnight, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected. The steadiest rain should fall late tonight into tomorrow morning.

What appears to be different now is that places inland, away from the coast, may end up with some snow flakes if it is cold enough. It now appears that the cold air mass will cause temperatures to drop throughout the day on Friday, with the precipitation ending in the afternoon. While uncertain, the timing may turn out enough so that places farther away from the coast might see a brief period of light snow. No snow accumulation is expected, however, as temperatures are not expected to be supportive of accumulations, as well as any snow generally being light.

Chilly And Dry Weekend

Any precipitation should end by tomorrow afternoon, with clearing skies and dropping temperatures. By the overnight hours, places well north and west of NYC should have low temperatures below 20 degrees, the immediate suburbs should be in the lower to mid 20s, and New York City should be in the upper 20s. Saturday will be mainly sunny, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.

Sunday will be warmer, with high temperatures generally in the lower 50s, though there will be increasing clouds ahead of the next storm, that should affect the area on Monday.

Heavy Rain And Flooding Potential Returns Monday

The next storm approaches the area on Sunday night, and once again brings heavy rain and flooding possibilities to the area. At this time, the rain is expected to start falling on Sunday night, with periods of heavy rain on Monday. The rain should end by Tuesday morning. The model solutions show at least 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area. There is still some uncertainty with the storm, including the exact track, though there is likely to be heavy rain out of this storm.

Warmer Conditions To Return Next Weekend

After the storm exits the area on Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm up and return to at least average levels. There should be a developing warm up in the Plains and Midwest, though at first, it would be blocked from reaching the area. As a result, temperatures would only be near average to slightly above average through at least Thursday. Afterwards, the warm up will be able to push further east, and temperatures are expected to warm up even further, with 70+ degrees potentially returning into the area by next weekend.

Mar 24: Stormy Pattern Update

Forecast For The Remainder Of This Week

Tomorrow should be another mild day, with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, though we should be seeing increased cloud cover, already becoming cloudy by tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the next storm approaching from our west. Temperatures will go down into the upper 30s for the northwestern areas, and the lower 40s for the New York City area, and are expected to remain generally steady after midnight.

On Thursday night, the storm continues to spread east, with rain starting to fall in the western areas by the late afternoon hours and for the rest of the area tomorrow evening. The rain is expected to intensify and become moderate at times, with the highest rain amounts on Friday morning.

Meanwhile, a cold air mass will be pushing into the Northeast, causing the storm to start moving offshore and away from the area. While there should be enough precipitation in the Northeast to result in light snow with some accumulations, the storm will already have left the area when the cold air does reach the NYC Metro. Some snow could fall in northwestern New Jersey and Orange County in New York, however little to no accumulation is expected.

The rain is expected to end by late Friday morning, clearing skies by the afternoon. At least 1/2 inch of rain is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts. For the rest of Friday, temperatures will be steady in the morning and early afternoon hours, then should start to drop by the late afternoon hours. Windy conditions are also possible, with winds up to 20-25 mph for the NYC area and the coast, and gusts occasionally up to 30 mph.

Cold Saturday, Warmer Sunday

The coldest temperatures since late March are going to affect the area on Friday night. With a cold air mass entering the area, and with clear skies allowing for radiational cooling, temperatures are going to steadily drop across the area, and should be in the 20s across most of the area except for the immediate coast. Parts of the northwestern areas in the higher elevations might even have lows slightly below 20 degrees.

Saturday should be sunny, however the temperatures should be colder than average. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 40s across the area, with the coldest temperatures north and northeast of New York City. Saturday night won't be as cold as the previous night was, with low temperatures returning into the upper 20s and 30s for the area, and Sunday will already have high temperatures returning into the lower 50s.

Monday And Tuesday: Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible

The dry conditions won't last for long, as another storm approaches the area on Monday, and may bring another heavy rain possibility. At this time, light rain is expected to start on Sunday night or Monday morning, with periods of rain, heavy at times, through Tuesday. This storm, combined with recent heavy rains, may cause additional flooding concerns for the area.

While there is still uncertainty on some details of the storm, looking at some of today's model runs, they have highlighted the area as a part of the heavy rain zone, with over 1 inch of rain and potentially over 2 inches of rain. Below is what I am thinking at this time that the scenario for the storm could be, though there is still uncertainty with the heavy rain zone, as it may end up further north or south.



Late Week Warm Spell Potential

As I mentioned yesterday, there is the potential for a warm spell. While it is becoming more likely for places in the Midwest and in the Plains, there is a backdoor cold front that may prevent the much warmer temperatures from reaching the area at first. As a result, temperatures would probably warm up to the 50s and 60s at most during the middle of next week, and if the warm spell is able to advance further east by the late week, then temperatures might be able to reach the 60s and 70s by next weekend.

Mar 23: Heavy Rain Potential Next Week

After what was a dry week followed by heavy rain and thunderstorms last night, the area has once again entered a stormy pattern, with more rain to come. However, the possible end of the stormy pattern is in sight, as well as possibilities of what could happen after this stormy pattern.

Friday's Storm: Light To Moderate Rain

After dry conditions briefly return this week, with temperatures approaching 60 degrees once again, the next storm will impact the area on Friday, however it is not expected to produce as much rain as the previous storms have produced. We are looking at a relatively weak storm that produces a wide area of moderate rain from the Ohio Valley towards the area and the southern Northeast. This storm is going to run into colder air on Friday, which will result in the storm being pushed out to sea from that point. This will produce a relatively chilly rain on Friday, with a light snow mixing with the rain for the interior Northeast, followed by clearing conditions on Friday night as a cold air mass moves in. Some flakes might be possible in the north and western parts of the area at the end before the storm ends, however no accumulation is expected.

At this time, there is still some uncertainty on the northern end of the precipitation area, though the expectation at this time is for at least 1/2 inch of rain on Friday, with locally higher amounts of 3/4 to 1 inch.

Below is my rain map for this storm, with the uncertainty area being the northern extent of the storm.



Weekend Forecast: Dry And Chilly

As a colder air mass moves in, temperatures will briefly return to below average levels. Saturday is expected to be the coldest day, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area, and low temperatures in the 20s away from the coast. The interior areas further north and west might have slightly colder temperatures. These colder conditions are relatively brief, as Sunday will already have warmer temperatures, with 50s once again returning by Monday.

Heavy Rain Possible Monday To Tuesday

After a dry and chilly weekend, the temperatures continue to warm up in the early week and may reach the mid 50s, however these dry conditions are only short as the next storm approaches, with the possibility of heavy rain returning once again.

There is still some uncertainty with the storm track, whether it is a coastal storm or a storm that tracks in the interior, north and west of the area. While at this time, it is more likely that the storm would track further north and west, due to the uncertainty, a coastal storm can't be ruled out yet, though it would still probably bring heavy rain to the area, just with an additional wet snow possibility for the interior Northeast.

At this time, we are looking at the storm to begin on Monday and continue through Tuesday, with some uncertainty about the exact timing of the storm. Heavy rain is possible out of this storm, with flooding possibilities potentially returning once again if widespread heavy rain does happen.

After The Stormy Pattern: What Happens Next?

From what appears to be the case as of now, the stormy pattern is likely to temporarily end after the early week storm. However, instead of seeing another cold air mass dropping out of canada, the models have been consistently showing much warmer conditions developing, with a ridge extending towards the area, which could bring our first major warm up since this past weekend for the start of April. There is still uncertainty on this time period, so the confidence of this forecast as of now is still relatively low, but the potential is there for above to possibly well above average temperatures if the current model solution verify.

Mar 22: Flooding Potential Tonight

After a week of dry conditions, rain returns once again to the area today. There is already generally light rain with occasional moderate/heavy rain falling across the area, and the rain is expected to intensify into tonight, when it may be heavy at times. Flooding is possible once again especially near rivers, as some places still have flooding due to the storm last weekend, and this rain storm will bring additional flooding issues to these areas. Thunder is also possible tonight in the heavier rain showers. The rain should end by tomorrow afternoon, with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible, with locally higher amounts possible in northwestern New Jersey.

Late Week/Weekend Outlook: Light Rain, Then Dry

After dry conditions briefly return for the middle of the week, another storm, but weaker, approaches the area by Friday. Light to moderate rain is expected out of this storm, with rainfall amounts relatively low, preventing additional flooding. As a colder air mass is approaching behind this storm, some snow may mix in the higher elevations of NW NJ, but unless the snow falls moderate to heavy, little to no accumulation is expected.

Saturday will be noticeably colder than the past few weeks, with high temperatures in the 40s across the area, colder than the average for this time of the year. Sunday will already begin warming up, with temperatures returning into the 50s for parts of the area and staying in the 40s inland.

Storm Potential Early Next Week

The next storm potential returns by early next week. The cold air mass should mainly exit by this time, and while some of it will be left over, it should not be enough to produce a snowstorm for most of, if not all of the area.

There is still uncertainty on the storm track, which can take a coastal track or an inland track. If it takes a coastal track, then it should be able to pull at least some cold air, and the result could be a snowstorm for the interior Northeast, a little snow possible in the higher elevations of the NW parts of the area, and a cold rain for the rest of the area. If it tracks inland though, the storm would also draw warmer air, and result in another rainstorm and a cold front passage for the area.

Mar 20: Monday Night Storm Update

Weekend Forecast

Temperatures are quickly warming up across the area, and are expected to peak in the lower to mid 70s, except for the immediate coast that should stay in the 60s. Parts of the New York City area should also reach the upper 70s, which is very warm for this time of the year.

Tonight will have low temperatures generally in the 40s and a few lower 50s. Tomorrow will be partly sunny with high temperatures still warm but not as warm as today, in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Heavy Rain Returns Monday Night

After nearly a week of dry weather, rain is expected to return on Monday. While only light rain falls during the day, especially in the afternoon hours, the rain is expected to become heavy at times on Monday night. The rain will continue until Tuesday morning before ending across the area. There is still some uncertainty about where the heaviest rain falls, as some models show it for the NYC metro and Long Island, while others show it well north and west of New York City, though it is likely that rainfall amounts will be over 1/2 inch across the area, and rainfall amounts over 1 inch are also a good possibility.

Below is my first rain map for this storm, which also includes a wide potential 1+ inch area, as its exact location is still uncertain. This storm should be a warm storm, with the only place seeing light snow at the end being northern Maine.




Next Weekend Potential Storm, Colder Conditions Possible

Another storm is possible next weekend, however one factor that makes it slightly harder to forecast is that there is a lot of cold air involved in this time period. The worst of the cold air should stay north of the area, which should also be blocked at first from affecting the area due to a potential storm next weekend. At this time, the GFS and DGEX models show a weak storm in this time frame which is suppressed due to the cold air, however it is still too warm for snow in the area, possibly except the far north and western parts. After the storm exits, the GFS brings in some of the cold air, however it does not bring the worst of the cold towards the area, which is what is needed by this time of the year for much more than light snow showers in the NYC metro.

At this time, while there is still uncertainty on whether there is a storm or not, and what track it would take if there is a storm, if at least some of the cold reaches the area, similar to what the GFS showed, then snow showers might be possible in the higher elevations north and west of New York City. Otherwise, rain is possible next weekend, followed by slightly below average temperatures.

Afternoon Update: The latest GFS run once again brought cold conditions and snow to the Mid Atlantic. The pattern is not supportive of such a cold spell happening, and in years that the pattern was much more supportive of cold and even some snow, it was much more supportive of that happening than it is now. I would expect the models to eventually correct themselves and reduce the amount of cold shown, where we end up with average to slightly below average temperatures, not up to 10 degrees below average as some models showed.

Mar 19: Heavy Rain On Monday Night

Warmest Conditions To Take Place Tomorrow

While today was warm, with temperatures in the 70s across the area, tomorrow should be even warmer than today, with temperatures reaching the mid 70s in the New York City area away from the coast. Clouds should start to increase tomorrow night, with partly cloudy skies by Sunday.

Heavy Rain Possible Monday Night

The next storm starts to affect the area on Monday, with light rain starting in the morning hours. By the afternoon, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected, however it does not appear that there will be any strong or severe thunderstorms. The rain will continue to fall on Monday night, heavy at times, ending on Tuesday morning. By the time that the rain ends, 1/2 to 1 inch of rain are possible, with locally higher amounts.

Mid To Late Week Outlook

Tuesday will be slightly colder, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s, though temperatures quickly warm up afterwards into the 60s again. The next rain possibility returns again late next week or next weekend, though there is still uncertainty on what track the storm takes.

Mar 18: Warm Weekend Ahead

Weekend Outlook: Much warmer than average

With today's temperatures in the 60s, and some places reaching 70 degrees, tomorrow will only continue to get warmer, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. On Saturday, places in the New York City area away from the coast might be able to reach the mid 70s. Sunday is expected to be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms Possible Monday Night

The latest models today changed the timing of the next storm to affect the area, now expected to be between Monday night and Tuesday morning, instead of Sunday night and Monday morning. According to the latest model solutions, Monday morning should be dry, with light rain and some thunderstorms developing by Monday afternoon. The heaviest rain would fall on Monday night, and the rain ends on Tuesday morning.

There is still uncertainty with the exact timing of the storm, however it appears at this time that there is the potential for 3/4 to 1 inch of rain in the area, with higher amounts possible. Some wind is also possible out of this storm, however that is still uncertain.

No Cold Spell Next Week

Due to the storm being delayed, and the lack of arctic air further south, it now no longer appears that colder weather would return next week. While temperatures will briefly be in the lower 50s, temperatures warm up once again quickly afterwards, already reaching the 60s by the end of the week.

Another storm might impact the area late next week or early next weekend, with another cold front moving through the area, though there's still uncertainty on that time period. Stay tuned for more updates.

Mar 17: Rain And Wind To Return Sunday

Temperatures To Pass 70 Degrees

While the warm up continues, with high temperatures today generally in the mid 60s, the temperatures are expected to continue warming, with tomorrow's temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Some areas might reach 70 degrees on Friday, with potentially widespread 70s on Saturday. Some parts of the NYC area away from the coast might peak in the mid 70s. Sunday will be slightly colder, with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Rain And Wind On Sunday Night To Monday

The next storm will affect the area starting Sunday night, with a cold front expected to move through the area. At this time, some thunderstorms are possible south and west of NYC, though thunderstorms aren't expected to be the main threat. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain is possible during Sunday night, with rain ending by Monday afternoon. At this time, rainfall amounts between 1/2 inch to as much as 1 inch of rain are possible, though this number can still change.

Strong winds will return once again. While the winds should not be as strong as they were with the storm last weekend, there will still be relatively strong wind gusts with this storm. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm's potential impact on the area.

Colder conditions briefly return by the middle of next week, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s and low temperatures in the 20s and 30s, though these colder conditions should be short lived, as temperatures start to warm once again into the 50s and 60s by late next week.

Mar 16: Warmth Continues, Rain Returns Sunday Night

Warm Conditions Continue

The warm spell will continue to affect the area, with high temperatures in the mid 60s for the rest of this week, occasionally in the upper 60s for the New York City area and in the lower 60s for the interior locations and the immediate coast/Long Island. Saturday should be the warmest day of this warm spell, with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area except for the immediate coast, which should be in the lower 60s. Sunday will also be warm, with temperatures peaking in the upper 60s except for the immediate coast, where highs should be in the lower 60s.

Rain And Potential Thunderstorms Sunday Night

During the warm spell, a storm will form in the Plains, and is expected to intensify while moving northeast. This will draw in cold air from Canada, while the storm's cold front approaches the area. At this time, it appears that the cold front passes through Sunday night, which if it does happen, then thunderstorms are possible Sunday in the late afternoon, mainly west of New York City, though there is still uncertainty on the exact timing of the cold front. When it does affect the area, most likely between Sunday night and Monday morning, potentially heavy rain could fall with it, however there should not be as much rain as the storm last weekend had.

Colder Conditions Briefly Return Next Week

After the cold front passes through, temperatures will cool down on Monday as colder air approaches the area. While not a very cold air mass, it should be cold enough to bring below average temperatures, with high temperatures in the upper 40s and lows in the 20s in the interior areas and 30s towards the coast. As a high pressure approaches once again by the middle of the week, these colder conditions should be relatively short lived. If this scenario plays out, then temperatures would warm up again mid-late next week.

Mar 15: Warm Conditions For Next Weekend

The Long Range Forecast page has been updated this morning, with a forecast for the next 2 weeks.

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Light Rain To Continue Today

Occasional light rain showers should continue through today. At least an additional 0.1 to 0.2 inch of rain is possible across the area before the rain ends tonight. A few snow showers could mix in the higher elevations of NW NJ and interior SE NY, though there should not be accumulations where the snow does fall.

Late Week, Next Weekend Warmth

As soon as the storm exits tonight, the temperatures will start to warm tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will already be in the mid 50s, possibly in the upper 50s in parts of the New York City area. As a high pressure stays in the area, temperatures are going to continue to rise, with mainly sunny conditions through Saturday. High temperatures on Wednesday should be near 60 degrees in some places, and by Saturday, high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 60s, and a few places might possibly reach 70 degrees.

Possible Storm Early Next Week

Sometime between next Sunday and Tuesday, the next storm might affect the area. At this time, we are looking at a storm tracking well to our north and west, bringing a cold front through with rain, and even some thunderstorms possible. There sould still be changes to the model solutions, though we are likely to end up with at least some rain falling out of this storm. After this storm, temperatures are expected to cool down, with slightly below average temperatures for the middle of next week.

Mar 14: Additional Rain Tonight, Warmth This Week

Additional Rain Through Tomorrow

The storm was at its worst yesterday, bringing heavy rain, flooding, and strong winds to the area. The storm has calmed down since then, though scattered showers and also some thunderstorms continue to affect the area.

The low pressure is expected to move close to the area again tonight before moving out tomorrow, which should bring another round of rain, though nowhere near as heavy as the rain last night was. At least an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain should fall by tomorrow afternoon before the storm exits the area. Scattered snow showers are also possible in the higher elevations of interior southeastern New York.

Warm Conditions Later This Week

After the chilly conditions that this storm brought, we are looking at the return to warmth later this week. A high pressure will bring sunshine once again to the area, with temperatures steadily warming up. By mid to late week, we could already be looking at the return of 60 degrees. By next weekend, temperatures could potentially reach the mid-upper 60s, with 70 degrees possible south of New York City.

Some models are hinting that the next storm to affect the area would be early next week. There is still uncertainty on what happens, but one possible scenario that the models show would be a storm tracking well to our north and west, bringing a cold front with rain, followed by chilly conditions.

Mar 13 Storm Updates

3:34 PM: Heavy rain is now affecting the area, with rainfall amounts over 1 inch across the area, and over 2 inches in some places. The heavy rain band is starting to move out of the area, though moderate rain should continue fall afterwards, with more heavy rain to affect the area later tonight.

Seeing how places in the mountains are already reporting snow, I am slightly raising my forecast amounts from my snow map made this morning, now expecting 1 to 3 inches in the light blue area, and 3 to 6 inches in the darker blue area. The main exception is the small snow area in Western PA, which I might remove from the snow area.

9:22 AM: Moderate to heavy rain is currently affecting Connecticut, southeastern New York and Long Island, with an additional 1/2 inch of rain possible in the next few hours. For northern New Jersey, however, there is not much rain but the wind is the main concern. There are wind reports of at least 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph in some areas. At this time, it appears that the rain should mainly pick up in intensity for northern New Jersey this afternoon, though Long Island and Connecticut should continue to see moderate to heavy rain, with occasionally lighter rain.

Mar 13: Short Term Storm Updates

Below are some updates and observations about the storm:

1. Light to moderate rain is currently falling over the area, with rain totals from as little as 1/4 inch to as much as over 1 inch in the heavier bands. The rain should get lighter by at least 10 AM to 12 PM, followed by the heavy rain starting in the afternoon hours. The area should end up with at least 3 to 4 inches of rain by the end of the storm, with amounts locally as high as 5 inches.

2. Windy conditions are also a concern throughout today. Windy conditions already started last night, and are expected to continue and intensify later today and tonight. Closer to the coast and in the NYC area, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Wind gusts should occasionally reach 40-50 mph, especially near the coast.

3. Light rain is starting to fall in the Northeast, in places such as Albany and Massachusetts. The temperatures there are close to freezing, but are expected to rise some more. While some occasional snow/sleet is possible in the highest elevations throughout the storm, by the end of the storm, there should be wet snow developing in the higher elevations, accumulating up to 3 inches.

4. While the area should see heavy rain during the storm, non-accumulating light snow is possible in the higher elevations of NW NJ and interior SE NY at the end of the storm, which at this time, I added a mention of light snow to the short term forecast.


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I made some revisions to my first rain map, including shifting the 3.5+ inch area further north and east, as well as moving the northern end of the precipitation slightly further south.

For the interior areas, I have an updated snow map. While there could be some heavy snow in places that do see snow, the temperatures are still mainly near-slightly above freezing, and as a result, it would be a wet snow with less than 10:1 ratios (meaning less than 10 inches of snow for every inch of liquid precipitation), that has a hard time accumulating on surfaces.

Afternoon Update: I decided to raise the forecast snow amounts, with 1-3 inches in the light blue area, and 3-6 inches in the dark blue area. The small area in western Pennsylvania should see less snow.

Mar 12: Final Storm Forecast

I added a new page to the blog, titled Long Range Forecasts. In this new page, I am occasionally going to make longer range forecasts, such as weekly and monthly forecasts, hurricane season outlooks and winter outlooks.

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Short Term Forecast:

Light rain is currently falling across the area, with some places seeing moderate rain. This first wave of rain is expected to continue affecting the area through tonight and Saturday morning, with light to occasionally moderate rain. At least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible by tomorrow morning.

The temperatures are also slightly colder than expected, in the 40s across most of the area instead of the upper 40s to lower 50s. As a result, I have lowered my forecast temperatures, now expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s with some places near 50 degrees for the New York City area and Long Island, and in the lower to mid 40s for northwestern New Jersey and interior southeastern New York.

Forecast For Tomorrow And Sunday:

There might be a brief break in the rain by tomorrow morning, though the heaviest rain should start falling tomorrow afternoon. The heavy rain continues through early Sunday morning, with the heaviest rain falling tomorrow night. Flooding is possible, along with windy conditions at times. The rain then becomes light for most of Sunday, with any remaining rain showers ending by Monday morning.

Total rain amounts from this storm are expected to be in the 2 to 4 inch range. The lowest amounts will be in northern Connecticut, with the highest totals south of New Jersey. I am using my rain map that was created yesterday as my final map, which is also posted below.




Possible Snow For Interior Areas?

While at first, it appeared that this storm would bring rain to all of the places that it affects, it is now possible that a little snow could fall in the higher elevations of central/western Pennsylvania and in the Catskills. While at this time, we are not looking at any significant snow there, with possibly an inch or two of very wet snow at most, it is something to keep an eye on, as the snow would cause further disruption to areas that have already been impacted by heavy rain and flooding. Some light snow is also possible in the higher elevations of central New England.

Mar 11: Rain To Start Falling Tomorrow

The storm currently in the Southeast is expected to start affecting the area tomorrow, and we are going to see the effects of this storm last into Monday, with heavy rain, flooding and some winds being a part of this storm.

Despite there being cloudy skies outside, the rain should not start until at least tomorrow morning. The rain should be mainly light through tomorrow, with amounts less than 1/4 inch. The light rain continues through Saturday morning, with occasional periods of moderate rain, especially south of New York City. By Saturday morning, rainfall amounts should be between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, with the highest amounts south and west of NYC and the lowest amounts for Long Island and Connecticut.

As I previously mentioned, Saturday night should be the time frame for the heaviest rain, though there is still uncertainty on how much rain falls in that time period. The latest GFS run is much drier than its previous runs, with the heaviest rainfall rate being 1/2 inch in 6 hours, compared to other runs and models, including the 12z NAM which brought 1.5 inch of rain in 6 hours. The latest GFS and NAM runs end up bringing a total of 2-3 inches of rain, while their previous runs had 3-5 inches of rain. Whether it is a trend or not is still uncertain, though it is possible that rain amounts could end up being slightly lower if this does in fact become a trend.

Once the heavy rain ends by Sunday, lighter rain then continues until Monday, when the rain ends as the storm finally exits the area. By that time, we are looking at 2 to 4 inches of rain, with the highest amounts south of New York City.

Below is my updated rain map. I shifted the rain areas further south, as over the past 2 days, the trend has been to move the rain totals further south. Some models such as the NAM have the rain areas even further south, though at this time I decided to keep the northern boundary of the rain area slightly further north, in case there is a slight north trend.

Mar 10: Heavy Rain And Flooding This Weekend

Today was yet another nice day with high temperatures in the 50s across the area, though today was the last day of sunshine for a while, as for the next few days, we will have cloudy conditions with rain and flooding as our first storm since last week impacts the area.

Thursday - Saturday Morning Outlook
At this time, it appears that tomorrow should have cloudy skies, with scattered light rain showers starting late tomorrow night. There is uncertainty on the exact rain amounts that fall on Friday, as some models show moderate rain on Friday, while others, such as the NAM, don't have a single drop of rain until Saturday morning. At this time, I think that we should see occasional periods of light to moderate rain until Saturday morning, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain possible across the area by then. The highest amounts by Saturday morning will be south and west of NYC, and the lowest amounts will be in Long Island and Connecticut.

Saturday Afternoon - Monday Outlook
The storm should have its biggest impact on the area between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. An area of heavy rain starts to affect the area, with flooding across the area, especially in places that still have snow on the ground. Some wind is also possible, but at this time it doesn't look like a significant wind event. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing of the heavy rain, as the latest GFS run would bring the heaviest rain by Sunday morning, the NAM by Saturday night, and the NOGAPS by Saturday morning, though it does look likely at this time that Saturday night will be the best time frame for heavy rain.

By at least Sunday morning or afternoon, the rain should start to become lighter, but light rain should still stay in the area until Monday. When the storm is over, total rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 4 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts.

Mar 9: Dry Conditions To End On Thursday

Dry Conditions To Continue Through Tomorrow

The dry conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow, with partly sunny skies expected. High temperatures will once again be mild, in the mid to upper 50s. By Thursday, despite high temperatures still in the 50s, we should be seeing mainly cloudy skies as the next storm approaches the area.

Heavy Rain And Flooding For Friday And Saturday

Another storm approaches the area for Friday and the weekend, though unlike the previous few storms, this storm should barely have any cold air to work with, and will bring rain to almost all of the Northeast, with heavy rain in the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England.

Scattered showers are possible through Thursday, though the rain should mainly start by Thursday night. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected until Friday night, with rainfall amounts generally up to 1 inch by that time. On Saturday, an area of heavy rain should enter the area, with periods of heavy rain through the day. Flooding is possible during this time, especially in the heaviest rain showers. The precipitation should then slowly weaken through Sunday, and should end by at least Sunday night. By the time that the storm is over, 2 to 4 inches of rain are possible in the area, with locally higher amounts.

Below is my first rain map for this storm. Note that the "2+ inch potential" area could be extended further north and east, and in the 2+ inch area, rain amounts could locally be as high as 5-6 inches.

Mar 8: Flooding Possible Late This Week

Forecast For Early Week: Mild And Dry

As this weekend was, expect tomorrow and Wednesday to remain dry. The temperatures should be mild, however they should be colder than today, which had temperatures near or even over 60 degrees in parts of the area. The updated short term forecast shows temperatures staying in the 50s through the first half of the week, with some places possibly reaching the upper 50s.

Late Week And Early Weekend: Flooding Rainstorm Possible

As I said in my update on Tuesday, we are looking at a rainstorm for the late week. However, at this time it appears that we are looking at a lot of rain, with flooding possible across the area. The latest GFS model runs have indicated over 3 inches of rain, and in some cases, as much as 5-6 inches in the area. These numbers, while very high, are actually possible in isolated areas, as we are looking at a long duration rain event with rain, heavy at times.

The current forecast expects light rain to start around Thursday afternoon, and slowly increase in intensity. By at least Friday morning, a steady light to moderate rain should develop. This rain will continue through the afternoon hours, and by the evening, an area of heavy rain approaches. The heaviest rain could impact the area from Friday night to Saturday morning, as the GFS and NOGAPS models show, though there is still uncertainty on the timing of the heaviest rain. By the time that the storm is over on Sunday, rainfall amounts could generally end up in the 1 to 3 inch range, though this number can still change.

Below is a scenario map of where I think the heaviest rain area could end up, as well as a small area of frozen precipitation in northern New England. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm.

Mar 6: Update On Next Storm Potential

Mild Weekend Ahead

Today should finally break the cloudy pattern that this week had so far. My updated 3 day forecast from this morning shows mostly sunny skies across the area today, with high temperatures near 50 degrees in the New York City area and Long Island, and in the upper 40s further north and west. Tomorrow should continue to become warmer, with high temperatures already in the 50s in a widespread part of the tri-state area. Monday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures possibly in the mid 50s for the immediate New York City area, with Long Island and the north/west parts of the tri-state area in the lower 50s.

Mid Week Outlook: Still Dry, Slightly Colder Temperatures

After the mild weekend, we should see temperatures slightly cool down, though we're not going to see about a cold spell, but rather slightly colder temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 40s across the area. The low temperatures will also become colder, generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Cloud cover is expected to be mostly to partly sunny during this time period.

Late Week To Next Weekend: Storm To Affect The Area

By the late week, things should get more active. We have a storm that should approach the area by the late week, bringing with it a lot of moisture. The models are all over the place, with the 00z GFS showing what appears to be a snowstorm, and some models being completely suppressed with the storm. This shows us how the models are not consistent at this time, and will most likely continue to be inconsistent until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

One problem that is preventing us from seeing a snowstorm out of this storm is that we are missing a widespread, strong cold air mass. What we have at this time is a weak cold air mass to our north, which can easily make it a rain storm even with a supportive track for a snowstorm. We still have to see how strong the cold air is and how widespread it is, which might make the forecast slightly colder or warmer, though at this time, we are most likely looking at a rain event, possibly heavy, for Friday and Saturday, with a frozen precipitation event for the interior Northeast and the higher elevations of the interior Mid Atlantic.

Below is a map showing a scenario that I think could happen if my current thinking was to verify. This is not a scenario map, as it is still too early to issue a scenario map. Remember that this is still only my early thinking, and could end up being colder or warmer.

Mar 5: Potential Storm Late Next Week

Weekend And Early Week Forecast

For the short term, some scattered rain and snow showers are impacting the area. These scattered showers should continue to impact parts of the area through the afternoon hours. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

After today, the cold air mass that has been out of the area will be replaced by an expanding ridge, allowing for warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Tomorrow will already be warmer, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across the area. The warm up will continue, with sunny skies on Sunday and highs in the upper 40s across the area. Some places near New York City should reach 50 degrees. Monday will be the warmest day, with widespread temperatures in the 50s.

A weak storm that moves towards Maine around Tuesday from Canada should bring in colder air into the area. While we are looking at slightly colder temperatures, this should not be another cold spell with high temperatures returning into the 30s, but rather a brief period of high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.

Storm Possible Late Next Week

As I previously mentioned, the models have been showing a storm for late next week. The GFS, for example, trended more suppressed with the storm yesterday, showing a track that would take it well south of the area. Last night's model runs, however, now show a solution where another storm then forms in the South by the end of the week behind the original storm, then moves northeast towards the area, but due to the lack of cold air, it would bring rain to the area.

At this time, I am leaning more towards that direction, with the second storm moving NE out of the south and bringing rain to the area, but I am thinking that there should be enough cold air left so that the interior Northeast and interior northern Mid Atlantic get frozen precipitation out of this storm. This is still in the medium range, so it can still change. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.

Mar 4: Mild And Dry Weekend

Cloudy Conditions End Tomorrow, Mild Weekend

After having mainly cloudy skies most of this week except for Monday, tomorrow should be the last day of cloudy to mostly cloudy skies as the storm that briefly affected the area yesterday should exit the northeastern United States. For the short term, no storm is expected to follow it, with dry conditions and mainly sunny skies this weekend.

Temperatures, though, are going to start becoming warmer. While tomorrow should still be a little chilly, by Saturday high temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 40s, and some locations may reach 50 degrees in warmer spots. Sunday continues this trend, with widespread temperatures in the 50s. Monday is currently expected to be the warmest day, with some places south of New York City possibly reaching the mid 50s.

Possible Storm Next Week

After the mild conditions that develop, another storm might form mid-late next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty about where the storm tracks as it is still almost a week away, though it is becoming less likely that the storm tracks through the Great Lakes and draws in warmth. The GFS continues with its suppressed storm solution, where it keeps the cold air over the Northeast and forcing the storm to stay south, though I am thinking that it might be too cold with its forecast temperatures, considering that it has tomorrow's highs only in the mid 30s, when they should be warmer than that.

What is becoming likely is that this storm would track from west to east, which in a normal January pattern would be able to bring a snowstorm to the area or places south of the area. The problem is that in March, the temperatures are warmer than January, and we also barely have a small cold air mass as the warm up over the weekend should remove the cold air out of the area. So whether the storm is suppressed or is further north, the Mid Atlantic is unlikely to get much, if any snow out of this storm. If the storm ends up north of what the GFS shows though, the interior northern Mid Atlantic and the Northeast would end up with a frozen precipitation event, possibly a snowstorm.

What is likely at this time is that temperatures through next week should be near to above average, mainly in the 40s. Whether any precipitation falls, when it does, and in what form is still uncertain and is unlikely to become more certain until at least this weekend.

Mar 3: Storm Bust, Next Week Warmth

Today's Forecast Bust: Storm Was Too Warm, Too Dry

While before yesterday, my forecasts for this storm called for near or less than an inch of snow, the consistency of so many models trending wetter for the area convinced me that the storm would in fact take that direction, with more snow falling in the area. Yet it turned out that this last minute trend was incorrect on the models, as the storm took an unexpected direction by tracking closer to the coast and bringing warmer temperatures, bringing rain to southern New Jersey instead of 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow. There was also not as much precipitation as the models showed, with Central Park having reported 0.07 inch of precipitation instead of the 0.50 inch of precipitation that the GFS showed.

For the short term, expect light rain/snow to slowly taper off, with snow accumulations near or less than an inch north and west of NYC. Scattered rain/snow showers are still possible through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Is Winter Over?

I am currently thinking that once the mild spell ends during mid-late next week, the cold temperatures (but not as cold as they were) would briefly return, with the time frame for another chance of snow possibly between March 10 and 20. However, if any snowstorm does take place in this time frame, unless we get very cold air to enter the Northeast United States, that would only be a generally light snowstorm. After this time period, the chances for snow become increasingly unlikely, as the sun angle is very high, the average temperatures are already past 50 degrees, the cold spells become much weaker and the average storm track shifts further north.

It is still impossible to rule out any cold and snow until at least early April though, as despite it being unlikely, it has happened before. Examples include the early April 2007 cold blast, where temperatures were well below average, and accumulating snow was even reported in places such as southern Virginia and North Carolina.

Weekend Warm-Up, High Temperatures In The 50s By Monday

As I previously mentioned, the temperatures are about to turn warmer. While the low temperatures should still be chilly through Saturday, generally in the 20s across the area, they should also start to become warmer afterwards. High temperatures should steadily rise through the late week and weekend, already peaking near 50 degrees in parts of the area by Sunday. Monday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures in the lower 50s across a rather widespread part of the area.

There is still uncertainty for the storm in the middle of next week, however the 06z GFS run showed an interesting solution that also can't be ruled out considering the uncertainty. It shows a storm forming in the Plains and instead of going northeast towards the Great Lakes, it is blocked from doing so and starts to move east. As the storm is blocked from moving north, the warm air is also blocked from moving into the area, and as a result the GFS keeps the cold air. By the time it reaches the Ohio Valley, as many other storms have done this winter, it transfers its energy to a secondary low, that moves offshore.

At this time, I would say that some rain is possible in the middle of next week with above average temperatures, though if the GFS does verify and the storm is blocked from going too far north, there might be snow in the Northeast and as far south as southern New York.

Update On Tomorrow's Storm

**Remember that the 3-day forecasts have now been moved to the new page, the link is in the top right corner of the page, titled "3 Day Area Forecast".

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After my post from this morning, the majority of the models have trended much wetter with this storm, along with the NAM. The GFS now shows 0.5" QPF, and the NAM would show at least 0.25" QPF. They are still trending west with the precipitation, which if this trend continues, could put the area under higher precipitation amounts. If this was January and we had a fresh source of cold air, that would fall as snow, with around 4-7 inches. But we are talking about a completely different scenario that will prevent another major snowstorm in the Washington DC to Boston corridor.

First of all, most forecasts for tonight have the low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s for the cities, and in the upper 20s elsewhere. This is not cold enough for a dry, high ratio snowfall, and instead should lead to a wet snow. There should also be rain mixing, as the temperatures are too warm for plain snow. So the total snow that does fall and accumulate will be less than the precipitation amount that falls.

For example, take southern NJ, with near 1" QPF. They should have rain to start, already taking away some of the precipitation. When it does start to snow, the temperatures should be generally above freezing, limiting accumulations to non-paved surfaces, and the ratios should also be low, also making these amounts even lower. So this way, we went down from what could've been 10 inches of snow to just 3-5 inches of wet, heavy snow.

Taking what I said above, with the model trends, I would guess that NYC could get at least 0.4" QPF if the west trend does verify. Considering that we should also have rain, and temperatures would be warm enough that it falls as mainly wet snow, that takes us down to at least 2 inches of snow. So at this time, my forecast for the New York City area would be 2-4 inches of snow, with the highest accumulations well north and west of New York City.

Below is my snow map for the storm. Remember that the precipitation across most of the area except the far NW areas of the snow zones start out as rain, then change over to mainly snow overnight.

**Slight Correction to the map: Snow amounts should end up being slightly lower in the Washington DC area. There is currently rain falling with temperatures in the 40s, and while snow should fall there later tonight, I do not think that the temperatures will be cold enough for any significant snow accumulation.

Mar 2: Warmer Temperatures Starting Next Weekend

Update On Tomorrow's Light Precipitation Event

We are currently seeing a split between the GFS and NAM models. The NAM, which has been consistent with a sharp cut off line to the precipitation well offshore, bringing only light rain/snow showers to the area, goes against the GFS, which has been showing the heavier precipitation from the storm making it inland, and in the past few runs it took it even more inland, which would bring NYC 4-6 inches of snow.

In previous storms this winter, when we were dealing with storms that had a sharp cut off line, the NAM usually performed better than the GFS. Examples include the December 19-20, 2009 storm, where the NAM had NW NJ and NE PA with low QPF amounts when the GFS brought heavy snow to those areas, and the February 5-6 storm, when in the last few runs, the GFS showed several inches of snow to most of northern NJ and the NAM had only a few snow showers. This leads me to believe that the NAM may have the more correct solution for this storm, and while it should be a little wetter than the NAM shows, I don't expect it to bring as much precipitation as the GFS shows.

I am still expecting light snow to start late tonight, mixing with rain towards the coast. The light snow/rain will continue through tomorrow, with snow accumulations near or less than 1 inch. The precipitation then ends tomorrow night.

Warm Up To Begin Next Weekend

Those who have been waiting for a taste of warm weather may finally get what they wanted next weekend, when our first major widespread warm up since late January takes place. After the mid week storm exits, the warmer air from the west will spread east, removing the cold air mass out of most of the Northeast. We also do not have another arctic high pressure dropping out of Canada, but instead there will be a weak low pressure area that should also help draw in the warm temperatures. Expect the weekend to steadily become warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s by Saturday. Sunday will continue to warm up, with high temperatures possibly in the lower 50s for parts of the area. Monday will be another mild day, with high temperatures in the 50s.

Then comes our next storm, however this time it is unlikely to bring any snow to the area. Instead, we are looking at a storm that should track well north and west of the area, bringing along with it unseasonably warm air for a day or two, followed by a cold front that brings rain and a cool down back to colder temperatures. There is still uncertainty on whether a secondary low does or does not form, which if it does, temperatures could be slightly colder (40s/50s instead of 50s/60s), though whether it happens or not, we are most likely looking at rain for the middle of next week with above average temperatures.

Mar 1: Light Rain/Snow On Wednesday

Note: The usual 3 day forecasts that I do have been moved to a separate page. You can find the page in the top right corner of the page, in a link titled "3 Day Area Forecast".

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Light Rain And Snow On Wednesday:

The storm that I mentioned in my update on Saturday now appears to be mainly suppressed, with the main impact area being south of Washington DC. The storm did not trend north/west, but it also did not trend much south/east. As a result, we are looking at a storm moving out of the southeast and moving northeast offshore, intensifying along the way. The storm should be far east enough to prevent heavy snow from once again returning to the major cities from Washington DC to New York City, but some snow should make it to the cities. The heaviest snowfall at this time appears to stay further south, towards Virginia and the northern parts of the Southeast.

For the New York City area, expect light snow, possibly mixed with rain, to start tomorrow night, and to continue through the day on Thursday. Up to an inch of snow is expected, with locally higher amounts.

Below is the scenario we are currently looking at. There should be widespread light snow in the Northeast with no more than 1-2 inches. The light snow continues until at least the central Mid Atlantic, with an area of moderate snow further south. The moderate snow area could end up with 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts.



First Widespread Warm Up Since Late January Next Weekend

Since January 25, when a storm tracking well to our north and west brought temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the area, temperatures have remained near average, with high temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s. However, next weekend appears as if it should temporarily end this spell of chilly temperatures.

After the mid week storm exits, we have a widespread area of chilly temperatures in the East. By the late week, however, a high pressure should approach the Southeast coast, which will bring warmer temperatures to the East Coast while pushing the cold airmass out of the area. Temperatures will be on the rise through next weekend, with high temperatures approaching 50 degrees on Sunday. By Monday, high temperatures could end up being in the 50s across the area.

During that time, however, we may see a storm start to form in the Plains. The storm should start heading east or northeast, taking a track that could take it close to the Great Lakes. There is still uncertainty on whether this storm will continue moving north and east with no transfer, or if it transfers its energy to another storm further south and east. Whether that does or does not happen, we are possibly looking at a rain storm during the middle of next week, with above average temperatures.