Verification For Friday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the upper 0s to lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. I expected wind chills below 0 degrees. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Today: Cloudy, with light snow showers south of NYC. Very Cold. High temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are expected in the morning.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are possible north and west of NYC.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Monday: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Saturday to Monday):
As I mentioned last night, there was some uncertainty with the storm, as it took a last minute north trend on the models. This north trend did slightly continue overnight, with one model, the CRAS, even showing moderate snow for the area. That is not too likely, as the air is too dry. Dew points are below 0 degrees while temperatures are in the single digits to lower 10s, and humidity is between 40 and 60 percent across the area. We'd want to see the dew point near the actual temperature in order for it to snow, and increasing humidity.
With this, here is my final forecast for today. North of I-80 should stay dry and mostly cloudy to cloudy with high temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s. NYC should stay cloudy with perhaps a snow shower or two possible, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s. South of NYC, cloudy skies with scattered snow showers are expected, with perhaps a brief period of light snow near the coast. And from south of Philadelphia to southern NJ, a steady period of light-moderate snow is likely, with 1-2 inches of snow expected.
Tonight will still be very cold, with low temperatures similar to this morning's temperatures. For tomorrow, mainly sunny skies return, with temperatures rising finally warming past the 30 degree mark in NYC and areas closer to the coast. Monday is even warmer, with high temperatures already in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Medium Range Forecast (Tuesday to Friday):
On Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. There is still some uncertainty for Wednesday, as the models trended slightly north with the weak storm's placement, bringing precipitation from southern NJ and further south. At this time, I think that Wednesday should be mostly cloudy with an isolated rain/snow shower possible. Thursday will have partly sunny skies with high temperatures still in the 30s. Friday could warm up some more, with high temperatures potentially returning into the 40s for some areas.
Next Weekend Potential Storm:
The models are still all over the place with the possible storm for next weekend. Overnight, we saw three completely different solutions, with the DGEX taking the storm through NYC, bringing us rain, the GGEM taking the storm through the benchmark bringing us a lot of snow, and the GFS barely even bringing precipitation into Virginia. Expect this variety of model solutions to continue for the short term, and only in about 2-3 days is when the models should probably start getting more consistent with their solutions. Due to the way how storms were this past month, I'd favor a suppressed storm track at this time than anything too close to bring us rain, but it's still too early to know for sure. Stay tuned for more updates.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Friday, January 29, 2010
Jan 29: Very Cold Tomorrow
Verification for Thursday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies and windy conditions, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. I expected wind chills in the single digits. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies and windy conditions, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. I expected wind chills in the single digits in the morning. The temperatures were slightly colder than expected, in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 3/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the upper 0s to lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are expected.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, with scattered snow showers possible south of NYC. Very Cold. High temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are expected in the morning.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower to mid 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Friday Night to Sunday):
Tonight will be partly cloudy, yet very cold, with potentially the coldest temperatures of the winter for some areas. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the upper 0s to lower 10s for the nearby north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills will also be cold, with most of the region seeing wind chills below 0 degrees.
There is some uncertainty with tomorrow's storm, as it appears to be further north than expected, meaning a few snow showers are possible from NYC south, but nothing more. High temperatures will be similar to today's highs. Tomorrow Night still appears to be cold, with low temperatures slightly warmer than tonight, with clearing skies. For Sunday, mainly sunny skies return, with temperatures rising finally warming past the 30 degree mark in NYC and areas closer to the coast.
Medium Range Forecast (Monday to Thursday):
The warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by Monday. During Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. For Wednesday, it originally appeared that a light precipitation event was possible, however the models mainly backed away from that. A few rain/snow showers are still possible though.
Next Weekend Storm Update:
The models have also been hinting at a storm for late next weekend. It's currently too far out in the long range to know what the storm's impacts will be, as the models are all over the place with the storm's intensity and track. This can be expected at this time range, and it may take a few days before the models have more consistency. By at least Monday or Tuesday, we should most likely have a better idea of this storm's impact, and if we do, I will make my first forecast for this storm should it impact us. Stay tuned for more updates.
Score: 4/4
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies and windy conditions, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. I expected wind chills in the single digits in the morning. The temperatures were slightly colder than expected, in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 3/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the upper 0s to lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are expected.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, with scattered snow showers possible south of NYC. Very Cold. High temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are expected in the morning.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower to mid 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Friday Night to Sunday):
Tonight will be partly cloudy, yet very cold, with potentially the coldest temperatures of the winter for some areas. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the upper 0s to lower 10s for the nearby north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills will also be cold, with most of the region seeing wind chills below 0 degrees.
There is some uncertainty with tomorrow's storm, as it appears to be further north than expected, meaning a few snow showers are possible from NYC south, but nothing more. High temperatures will be similar to today's highs. Tomorrow Night still appears to be cold, with low temperatures slightly warmer than tonight, with clearing skies. For Sunday, mainly sunny skies return, with temperatures rising finally warming past the 30 degree mark in NYC and areas closer to the coast.
Medium Range Forecast (Monday to Thursday):
The warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by Monday. During Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. For Wednesday, it originally appeared that a light precipitation event was possible, however the models mainly backed away from that. A few rain/snow showers are still possible though.
Next Weekend Storm Update:
The models have also been hinting at a storm for late next weekend. It's currently too far out in the long range to know what the storm's impacts will be, as the models are all over the place with the storm's intensity and track. This can be expected at this time range, and it may take a few days before the models have more consistency. By at least Monday or Tuesday, we should most likely have a better idea of this storm's impact, and if we do, I will make my first forecast for this storm should it impact us. Stay tuned for more updates.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Jan 28: Surprise Morning Snow, Longer Range
Surprise Morning Snowfall:
Most of us woke up this morning to an unexpected moderate snowfall, accumulating 1 to 3 inches over the region. After starting in the morning, the snow picked up in intensity and became moderate between 8 and 9 AM. The snow then tapered off around 10 AM, and with warmer temperatures and the sun coming out, the snow quickly melted, with most locations losing their snow cover in just 2 hours!
This makes it the third and final snow event of the month, an unusually low number for January. This whole winter did not have a lot of winter storms up to this point, and most areas north and west of NYC are below to much below their average winter snowfall.
For the short term, snow squalls are moving through the area, which will produce moderate wind gusts at times along with briefly heavy snowfall and low visibility, with the heaviest activity being towards SE NY and Connecticut. No accumulations are generally expected, however in the heaviest snow squalls an additional light accumulation is possible.
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Verification for Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification for Today: I expected possible snow showers mixing with rain for NYC and closer to the coast, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations up to a dusting were expected north and west of NYC. As I mentioned above, I busted with the snow as there was more than I expected, but the temperatures did verify.
Score: 2/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Cold and windy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. Cold and windy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected in the morning.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night to Saturday):
Snow squalls will continue to move through the area until this evening, with Connecticut seeing the heaviest snow squalls. Little or no accumulation is expected, however winds could gust past 30 mph at times. Tonight will be much colder after this clipper passes. Temperatures drop into the 10s across the region, with wind chills in the single digits possible. Tomorrow is also very cold, with high temperatures in the 20s across the area. Tomorrow night will be partly cloudy and also cold, with low temperatures in the mid-upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. As the storm passes to our south, Saturday will be dry yet cold. High temperatures will be similar to Friday's highs. Saturday night will not be as cold as Friday night, with temperatures more similar to tonight's temperatures.
Medium Range Forecast (Sunday to Wednesday):
Sunday will be slightly warmer than Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. This warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by early next week. A light precipitation event is possible for Wednesday, with light rain and/or snow showers expected at this time. High temperatures will still be in the 30s.
Storm for February 5-7?
Looking into the longer range, we have another storm potential coming, around February 5-7, or two weekends from today. There is still a lot of uncertainty as this is in the longer range, however the forecast models have been hinting of a storm originating in the South or in the northern Gulf of Mexico and affecting our area. While it's too early to go into details, this time period needs to be watched for potential storm impacts.
Most of us woke up this morning to an unexpected moderate snowfall, accumulating 1 to 3 inches over the region. After starting in the morning, the snow picked up in intensity and became moderate between 8 and 9 AM. The snow then tapered off around 10 AM, and with warmer temperatures and the sun coming out, the snow quickly melted, with most locations losing their snow cover in just 2 hours!
This makes it the third and final snow event of the month, an unusually low number for January. This whole winter did not have a lot of winter storms up to this point, and most areas north and west of NYC are below to much below their average winter snowfall.
For the short term, snow squalls are moving through the area, which will produce moderate wind gusts at times along with briefly heavy snowfall and low visibility, with the heaviest activity being towards SE NY and Connecticut. No accumulations are generally expected, however in the heaviest snow squalls an additional light accumulation is possible.
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Verification for Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification for Today: I expected possible snow showers mixing with rain for NYC and closer to the coast, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations up to a dusting were expected north and west of NYC. As I mentioned above, I busted with the snow as there was more than I expected, but the temperatures did verify.
Score: 2/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Cold and windy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. Cold and windy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected in the morning.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night to Saturday):
Snow squalls will continue to move through the area until this evening, with Connecticut seeing the heaviest snow squalls. Little or no accumulation is expected, however winds could gust past 30 mph at times. Tonight will be much colder after this clipper passes. Temperatures drop into the 10s across the region, with wind chills in the single digits possible. Tomorrow is also very cold, with high temperatures in the 20s across the area. Tomorrow night will be partly cloudy and also cold, with low temperatures in the mid-upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. As the storm passes to our south, Saturday will be dry yet cold. High temperatures will be similar to Friday's highs. Saturday night will not be as cold as Friday night, with temperatures more similar to tonight's temperatures.
Medium Range Forecast (Sunday to Wednesday):
Sunday will be slightly warmer than Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. This warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by early next week. A light precipitation event is possible for Wednesday, with light rain and/or snow showers expected at this time. High temperatures will still be in the 30s.
Storm for February 5-7?
Looking into the longer range, we have another storm potential coming, around February 5-7, or two weekends from today. There is still a lot of uncertainty as this is in the longer range, however the forecast models have been hinting of a storm originating in the South or in the northern Gulf of Mexico and affecting our area. While it's too early to go into details, this time period needs to be watched for potential storm impacts.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Jan 27: Brief Rain/Snow Tomorrow, Cold/Dry Weekend
Verification For Tuesday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s for the area. Temperatures were colder than I expected, in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 2/4
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Snow showers possible, mixing with rain for NYC and closer to the coast. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations up to a dusting are possible north and west of NYC.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Cold. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected.
Friday: Mostly Sunny. Cold. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Wednesday Night to Friday):
Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s. For tomorrow, a weak clipper passing to our north will bring a chance of snow showers changing over to rain by noon except for Sussex and Orange counties, where a dusting of snow is possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some areas possibly reaching the mid 40s. Tomorrow night will be much colder after this clipper passes. Temperatures drop into the 10s across the region, with wind chills in the single digits possible. Friday is also very cold, with high temperatures in the 20s across the area. Friday night will be partly cloudy and also cold, with low temperatures in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Medium Range Forecast (Saturday to Tuesday):
As the storm passes to our south on Saturday, this weekend will be dry yet very cold. High temperatures will be similar to, if not slightly colder than Friday's highs. Saturday night will not be as cold as Friday night, with temperatures similar to tomorrow night's temperatures. Sunday will also be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. This warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by early next week.
What Happened To The Weekend Storm?
When I made my first few forecasts for this storm, I did expect a north trend, as the past storms this year favored a north trend. However, then we had quite a surprise, when the models significantly trended south yesterday. The storm suddenly became suppressed and weaker, bringing no precipitation north of Philadelphia. Today, the model runs continued to trend even further south, now giving North Carolina a major winter storm.
There are still some chances that we could see a track slightly further north, as the past few runs of the GFS that showed the snowstorm in North Carolina showed the storm's current position further south than it actually is as of now. However, this north trend will do no more than bring the NYC area clouds and a slight chance of a snow shower.
Forecast for the Mid Atlantic:
For the rest of the Mid Atlantic, a snowstorm is still expected, possibly a big one. Below are my current thoughts on snow accumulations, please note that this is not final, and these amounts can still change over the next day or two.
Southern parts of Virginia could get the highest totals out of this storm, with 6 to 10 inches possible. Central Virginia along with the central Delmarva peninsula get more moderate snow, with about 3 to 6 inches of snow possible. For Washington DC, a lighter 1 to 3 inch snowfall is possible out of this storm, with places further north getting a few snow showers. Places north of Philadelphia should not be impacted by this storm.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s for the area. Temperatures were colder than I expected, in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 2/4
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Snow showers possible, mixing with rain for NYC and closer to the coast. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations up to a dusting are possible north and west of NYC.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Cold. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected.
Friday: Mostly Sunny. Cold. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Wednesday Night to Friday):
Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s. For tomorrow, a weak clipper passing to our north will bring a chance of snow showers changing over to rain by noon except for Sussex and Orange counties, where a dusting of snow is possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some areas possibly reaching the mid 40s. Tomorrow night will be much colder after this clipper passes. Temperatures drop into the 10s across the region, with wind chills in the single digits possible. Friday is also very cold, with high temperatures in the 20s across the area. Friday night will be partly cloudy and also cold, with low temperatures in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Medium Range Forecast (Saturday to Tuesday):
As the storm passes to our south on Saturday, this weekend will be dry yet very cold. High temperatures will be similar to, if not slightly colder than Friday's highs. Saturday night will not be as cold as Friday night, with temperatures similar to tomorrow night's temperatures. Sunday will also be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. This warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by early next week.
What Happened To The Weekend Storm?
When I made my first few forecasts for this storm, I did expect a north trend, as the past storms this year favored a north trend. However, then we had quite a surprise, when the models significantly trended south yesterday. The storm suddenly became suppressed and weaker, bringing no precipitation north of Philadelphia. Today, the model runs continued to trend even further south, now giving North Carolina a major winter storm.
There are still some chances that we could see a track slightly further north, as the past few runs of the GFS that showed the snowstorm in North Carolina showed the storm's current position further south than it actually is as of now. However, this north trend will do no more than bring the NYC area clouds and a slight chance of a snow shower.
Forecast for the Mid Atlantic:
For the rest of the Mid Atlantic, a snowstorm is still expected, possibly a big one. Below are my current thoughts on snow accumulations, please note that this is not final, and these amounts can still change over the next day or two.
Southern parts of Virginia could get the highest totals out of this storm, with 6 to 10 inches possible. Central Virginia along with the central Delmarva peninsula get more moderate snow, with about 3 to 6 inches of snow possible. For Washington DC, a lighter 1 to 3 inch snowfall is possible out of this storm, with places further north getting a few snow showers. Places north of Philadelphia should not be impacted by this storm.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Jan 26: Uncertainty For Next Weekend
Verification For Monday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with a few showers ending early, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Except for a few showers after midnight, the forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s for the area.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. A few rain/snow showers possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Tuesday Night to Thursday):
For tomorrow, high temperatures will be in the 40s except for Sussex and Orange counties, which should stay in the upper 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s for both tonight and tomorrow night. Scattered rain/snow showers are possible on Thursday, with high temperatures still in the 40s. Thursday night will then take a turn towards colder weather, with low temperatures back into the 10s for places north and west of NYC.
January 29-31 Storm Update:
The cool down from Thursday continues, with high temperatures on Friday only in the 20s to lower 30s. Then, there is a storm that approaches the Mid Atlantic region, however its impacts on the area, if any, are uncertain.
As I mentioned yesterday, the models have been trending north with this storm. However, we have seen an abrupt ending to this north trend, something not seen this winter where the previous coastal storms kept trending north, but instead the models took a significant trend to the south. For comparison, yesterday the GFS model showed New York City getting 5+ inches of snow, and today's runs of the GFS did not bring precipitation north of Philadelphia. The only model still showing any notable snowfall for the area is the DGEX.
So what we do know is that the models have reduced our probabilities of a snowstorm. And even if we do get a north trend, it will take a very big trend to put us in the heavy snow zone, which is unlikely in the 4 day range. But what we can do at this time is find a range of the possible storm track and snow area.
The southernmost model runs have been those of this afternoon, showing a snowstorm for the southern Mid Atlantic and no precipitation to the north of Philadelphia. The northernmost model runs were from yesterday evening, when snow was shown up to southern NY and Boston. So if we were to go according to the data above, the snow range would be from northern North Virginia to Boston.
However, there are some reasons why this most likely won't trend as far north as last night's model runs. We have suppression in place, with a strong cold air mass, meaning that even if it were to trend north, it wouldn't be a big trend. We also have a lack of phasing, meaning that the storm won't become intense, and what we get is a relatively weak storm going out to sea. So at this time, I will say that things are not looking favorable for us to get a snowstorm, but we still have to keep an eye on future trends in case we do see changes in the model solutions.
Whether we get snow or not, it will be cold. As I mentioned previously, the strong cold air mass is what's keeping the storm to our south. With all of this cold, high temperatures are going to be in the 20s for the area for next weekend. However, what depends on the storm is the overnight lows. If the storm does impact us, cloud cover will keep our temperatures in the 10s to 20s. But if the storm stays far enough to our south that we see at least partially clear skies, then radiational cooling will help cool down temperatures, with low temperatures being some of the coldest this winter.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s for the area.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. A few rain/snow showers possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Tuesday Night to Thursday):
For tomorrow, high temperatures will be in the 40s except for Sussex and Orange counties, which should stay in the upper 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s for both tonight and tomorrow night. Scattered rain/snow showers are possible on Thursday, with high temperatures still in the 40s. Thursday night will then take a turn towards colder weather, with low temperatures back into the 10s for places north and west of NYC.
January 29-31 Storm Update:
The cool down from Thursday continues, with high temperatures on Friday only in the 20s to lower 30s. Then, there is a storm that approaches the Mid Atlantic region, however its impacts on the area, if any, are uncertain.
As I mentioned yesterday, the models have been trending north with this storm. However, we have seen an abrupt ending to this north trend, something not seen this winter where the previous coastal storms kept trending north, but instead the models took a significant trend to the south. For comparison, yesterday the GFS model showed New York City getting 5+ inches of snow, and today's runs of the GFS did not bring precipitation north of Philadelphia. The only model still showing any notable snowfall for the area is the DGEX.
So what we do know is that the models have reduced our probabilities of a snowstorm. And even if we do get a north trend, it will take a very big trend to put us in the heavy snow zone, which is unlikely in the 4 day range. But what we can do at this time is find a range of the possible storm track and snow area.
The southernmost model runs have been those of this afternoon, showing a snowstorm for the southern Mid Atlantic and no precipitation to the north of Philadelphia. The northernmost model runs were from yesterday evening, when snow was shown up to southern NY and Boston. So if we were to go according to the data above, the snow range would be from northern North Virginia to Boston.
However, there are some reasons why this most likely won't trend as far north as last night's model runs. We have suppression in place, with a strong cold air mass, meaning that even if it were to trend north, it wouldn't be a big trend. We also have a lack of phasing, meaning that the storm won't become intense, and what we get is a relatively weak storm going out to sea. So at this time, I will say that things are not looking favorable for us to get a snowstorm, but we still have to keep an eye on future trends in case we do see changes in the model solutions.
Whether we get snow or not, it will be cold. As I mentioned previously, the strong cold air mass is what's keeping the storm to our south. With all of this cold, high temperatures are going to be in the 20s for the area for next weekend. However, what depends on the storm is the overnight lows. If the storm does impact us, cloud cover will keep our temperatures in the 10s to 20s. But if the storm stays far enough to our south that we see at least partially clear skies, then radiational cooling will help cool down temperatures, with low temperatures being some of the coldest this winter.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Jan 25: Next Weekend Storm Potential
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. A few showers ending early. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Monday Night to Wednesday):
Some showers are possible tonight, however that will taper off this evening, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will have more sunshine with colder temperatures. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the 40s except for Sussex and Orange counties, which should stay in the upper 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s.
January 29-31 Storm and Medium Range Forecast (Thursday to Sunday):
Scattered rain/snow showers are possible on Thursday, with high temperatures still in the 40s. However, this will make the area much colder, with high temperatures for Friday only in the 20s to lower 30s. Then we have to monitor the next storm possibility.
The forecast models are now having much better consistency with the storm track unlike the past few days, so I have enough confidence at this time to go more into details about this storm. The new consistency shown by the models is to take this storm to our south, with places such as Virginia and Maryland seeing moderate-heavy snow and places further north staying dry. Some other models don't even affect the Mid Atlantic with this storm, such as the DGEX. However, this is the solution shown 5-7 days before the storm, and chances are that the models do not stay with the same solution.
So far this year, we have seen at least every coastal storm trend north on the models, so I do not see any reason why this storm should not trend further north. And with such a strong cold air mass, it is very unlikely that this storm trends too far north so that we get rain. But then we have the question of how far north the storm trends. At this time, I do think that the models are showing a solution too far south, and that they will come back north, but it might take a few days before we know how far north that will be. As of now, I am thinking that places between central Virginia and New York City are in the most favorable spot for a snowstorm, and places further north should keep an eye on the trends.
Throughout the medium range, temperatures will stay below average, with high temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, and low temperatures in the 10s and 20s.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Short Term Forecast (Monday Night to Wednesday):
Some showers are possible tonight, however that will taper off this evening, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will have more sunshine with colder temperatures. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the 40s except for Sussex and Orange counties, which should stay in the upper 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s.
January 29-31 Storm and Medium Range Forecast (Thursday to Sunday):
Scattered rain/snow showers are possible on Thursday, with high temperatures still in the 40s. However, this will make the area much colder, with high temperatures for Friday only in the 20s to lower 30s. Then we have to monitor the next storm possibility.
The forecast models are now having much better consistency with the storm track unlike the past few days, so I have enough confidence at this time to go more into details about this storm. The new consistency shown by the models is to take this storm to our south, with places such as Virginia and Maryland seeing moderate-heavy snow and places further north staying dry. Some other models don't even affect the Mid Atlantic with this storm, such as the DGEX. However, this is the solution shown 5-7 days before the storm, and chances are that the models do not stay with the same solution.
So far this year, we have seen at least every coastal storm trend north on the models, so I do not see any reason why this storm should not trend further north. And with such a strong cold air mass, it is very unlikely that this storm trends too far north so that we get rain. But then we have the question of how far north the storm trends. At this time, I do think that the models are showing a solution too far south, and that they will come back north, but it might take a few days before we know how far north that will be. As of now, I am thinking that places between central Virginia and New York City are in the most favorable spot for a snowstorm, and places further north should keep an eye on the trends.
Throughout the medium range, temperatures will stay below average, with high temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, and low temperatures in the 10s and 20s.
Forecast and Storm Verifications
Verification For Saturday: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Saturday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Sunday: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with afternoon showers possible, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast mainly verified, as temperatures did keep rising through the day and peaked at the end of the day.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Sunday Night: I expected Rain, heavy at times, with low temperatures rising into the upper 40s to lower 50s. I expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. While the temperature forecast was mainly correct, the heavy rain did not fall during Sunday night, but rather during Monday.
Score: 3/4
Verification For Today: I expected Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across the area. I expected rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch. While the rainfall amounts were higher, in the 1 to 2 inch range, the temperatures verified.
Score: 3/4
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January 24-25 Storm Verification:
This storm is so far my best forecasted one since I started this blog in late December.
I first mentioned the possibility of this storm around January 12, stating that it would track through the Great Lakes and bring temperatures into the 40s and 50s, which was already a correct call. I went into more details starting on January 18, saying that the storm would bring temperatures into the 50s with rain on Monday. I mainly stayed consistent with my temperature forecasts for this storm, and adding the heavy rain mention on January 19. The most accurate part of my forecast for this storm was my temperature forecast, expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, long before some forecasts started showing temperatures that high.
One part I did bust though was the wind mention. I only mentioned the possibility of it being windy once, that was in my details for the rain map I made on Saturday. I did not mention the strong winds that were a part of today's storm. Overall, if I was to grade myself on my forecasts for this storm, I would give my forecasts an A-.
Today's update will be posted shortly, including a discussion about next weekend's potential storm.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Saturday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Sunday: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with afternoon showers possible, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast mainly verified, as temperatures did keep rising through the day and peaked at the end of the day.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Sunday Night: I expected Rain, heavy at times, with low temperatures rising into the upper 40s to lower 50s. I expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. While the temperature forecast was mainly correct, the heavy rain did not fall during Sunday night, but rather during Monday.
Score: 3/4
Verification For Today: I expected Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across the area. I expected rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch. While the rainfall amounts were higher, in the 1 to 2 inch range, the temperatures verified.
Score: 3/4
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January 24-25 Storm Verification:
This storm is so far my best forecasted one since I started this blog in late December.
I first mentioned the possibility of this storm around January 12, stating that it would track through the Great Lakes and bring temperatures into the 40s and 50s, which was already a correct call. I went into more details starting on January 18, saying that the storm would bring temperatures into the 50s with rain on Monday. I mainly stayed consistent with my temperature forecasts for this storm, and adding the heavy rain mention on January 19. The most accurate part of my forecast for this storm was my temperature forecast, expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, long before some forecasts started showing temperatures that high.
One part I did bust though was the wind mention. I only mentioned the possibility of it being windy once, that was in my details for the rain map I made on Saturday. I did not mention the strong winds that were a part of today's storm. Overall, if I was to grade myself on my forecasts for this storm, I would give my forecasts an A-.
Today's update will be posted shortly, including a discussion about next weekend's potential storm.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Storm Rain Map for Northeast
Map Created: January 23, 2010
Time Period: January 24-25, 2010
Precipitation Type: Rain
Storm set up: A storm moving well to our north and west will draw in unseasonably warm air before its cold front passes through the area with heavy rain and thunderstorms, ending the mild pattern.
Details: Overnight on Sunday, the storm should have a well organized strong cold front, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms. This heavy rain line will then move through the Northeast overnight, with the heaviest rain falling along and west of Interstate 95. The only areas to see any wintry precipitation out of this will be northern Maine, and that also won't be in big amounts. Temperatures will meanwhile rise into the 60s for Virginia and Washington DC, and the 50s further north except for western Pennsylvania, and northern New York, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. It could also be windy at times. After the cold front exits, it will start turning colder, with temperatures dropping. Northern parts of the Northeast could end with a rain/snow mix.
Forecast for NYC Tri-State Area: Heavy rain will start on Sunday night with thunderstorms also possible, ending by Monday late morning. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are possible.
Time Period: January 24-25, 2010
Precipitation Type: Rain
Storm set up: A storm moving well to our north and west will draw in unseasonably warm air before its cold front passes through the area with heavy rain and thunderstorms, ending the mild pattern.
Details: Overnight on Sunday, the storm should have a well organized strong cold front, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms. This heavy rain line will then move through the Northeast overnight, with the heaviest rain falling along and west of Interstate 95. The only areas to see any wintry precipitation out of this will be northern Maine, and that also won't be in big amounts. Temperatures will meanwhile rise into the 60s for Virginia and Washington DC, and the 50s further north except for western Pennsylvania, and northern New York, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. It could also be windy at times. After the cold front exits, it will start turning colder, with temperatures dropping. Northern parts of the Northeast could end with a rain/snow mix.
Forecast for NYC Tri-State Area: Heavy rain will start on Sunday night with thunderstorms also possible, ending by Monday late morning. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are possible.
Jan 23: Long Range Storminess
Verification for Friday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Today: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Rain, heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. Low temperatures will be steady from Sunday's highs, and rise after midnight into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Monday: Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, mainly before noon. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the area. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch possible.
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Short Term Forecast (Saturday to Monday):
Today will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than yesterday, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As a storm approaches from our west, temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Sunday will be cloudy, with showers starting from noon-3 PM from west to east. These showers then intensify overnight into moderate to heavy rain, with thunderstorms also possible. The rain and thunderstorms continue overnight until Monday afternoon before ending, with rainfall totals from 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible, with locally lower or higher amounts depending on where the heaviest rain falls. With this much rain, flooding is a possibility.
Temperatures will also start rising on Sunday night and peak during Monday, in the lower to mid 50s further north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 50s for the north and west suburbs, NYC and closer to the coast, and some places could also reach the lower 60s, something not seen since early December. Monday night will then be colder with low temperatures returning into the 30s.
Medium Range Forecast (Tuesday to Friday):
As Monday's storm draws in much colder temperatures, Tuesday will have more sunshine again with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. As we will also have a fresh supply of cold air in the Great Lakes and Midwest, which we did not have since the warm up started, this will allow temperatures to continue cooling down. Wednesday's high temperatures will be back into the 30s, and by Thursday, the interior may see high temperatures in the 20s, which was not seen for more than a week. Friday will have around the same temperatures as Thursday did, if not slightly warmer.
Long Range Forecast:
Then, as I said yesterday, we have a very interesting time period ahead. A storm has been shown to enter the US coast through California by late next week or early next weekend. This storm is then likely to move through the southern part of the US, but where it ends next is a question. The models are having a hard time handling this storm, with solutions varying from a storm tracking through the Great Lakes to a storm that stays well to our south. However, what is different from this storm than the previous storms is that the pattern is much better. The set up for this storm is also going to be very favorable, preventing this storm from going too far inland, and it will be cold, so we don't have the problem with a lack of cold air. So while we will probably have to wait a few days before the models get a better handle of this time period, we also need to keep track of this storm as it could end up affecting the area.
Score: 4/4
Today: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Rain, heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. Low temperatures will be steady from Sunday's highs, and rise after midnight into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Monday: Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, mainly before noon. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the area. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch possible.
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Short Term Forecast (Saturday to Monday):
Today will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than yesterday, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As a storm approaches from our west, temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Sunday will be cloudy, with showers starting from noon-3 PM from west to east. These showers then intensify overnight into moderate to heavy rain, with thunderstorms also possible. The rain and thunderstorms continue overnight until Monday afternoon before ending, with rainfall totals from 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible, with locally lower or higher amounts depending on where the heaviest rain falls. With this much rain, flooding is a possibility.
Temperatures will also start rising on Sunday night and peak during Monday, in the lower to mid 50s further north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 50s for the north and west suburbs, NYC and closer to the coast, and some places could also reach the lower 60s, something not seen since early December. Monday night will then be colder with low temperatures returning into the 30s.
Medium Range Forecast (Tuesday to Friday):
As Monday's storm draws in much colder temperatures, Tuesday will have more sunshine again with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. As we will also have a fresh supply of cold air in the Great Lakes and Midwest, which we did not have since the warm up started, this will allow temperatures to continue cooling down. Wednesday's high temperatures will be back into the 30s, and by Thursday, the interior may see high temperatures in the 20s, which was not seen for more than a week. Friday will have around the same temperatures as Thursday did, if not slightly warmer.
Long Range Forecast:
Then, as I said yesterday, we have a very interesting time period ahead. A storm has been shown to enter the US coast through California by late next week or early next weekend. This storm is then likely to move through the southern part of the US, but where it ends next is a question. The models are having a hard time handling this storm, with solutions varying from a storm tracking through the Great Lakes to a storm that stays well to our south. However, what is different from this storm than the previous storms is that the pattern is much better. The set up for this storm is also going to be very favorable, preventing this storm from going too far inland, and it will be cold, so we don't have the problem with a lack of cold air. So while we will probably have to wait a few days before the models get a better handle of this time period, we also need to keep track of this storm as it could end up affecting the area.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Jan 22: Monday's Heavy Rain, Longer Range
Verification for Thursday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. For the interior locations, this mainly verified though some places had lows in the mid 20s, however for the coastal locations due to urban heat island, this busted as these locations stayed much warmer, in the lower to mid 30s.
Score: 2/4
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday Night: Rain, heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. Low temperatures will be steady from Sunday's highs, and rise after midnight into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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Short Term Forecast (Friday Night to Sunday):
As skies clear tonight, more cooling takes place, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than today, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As a storm approaches from our west, temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 40s with cloudy skies, and showers possible after 3 PM.
Medium Range Forecast (Monday to Thursday):
The storm will continue to impact the area until Monday. As the cold front of the storm passes through the region, heavy rain will fall with thunderstorms also possible, however any thunderstorm should not be severe. During this time, temperatures will also rise overnight. The rain will then end Monday morning to early afternoon with a total of 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is possible in some locations. High temperatures will also then peak on Monday morning and afternoon, with high temperaures in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.
As this storm draws in much colder temperatures, Tuesday will have more sunshine again with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. As we will also have a fresh supply of cold air in the Great Lakes and Midwest, which we did not have since the warm up started, this will allow temperatures to continue cooling down. Wednesday's high temperatures will be back into the 30s, and by Thursday, the interior may see high temperatures in the 20s, which was not seen for more than a week.
Long Range Update and Possible Storm:
The long range is when things get very interesting for us once again. We now have a fresh supply of cold air to our north and west, which will allow any storm moving through to take in cold air, so if we get a coastal low, the area would see frozen precipitation from it, unlike the previous storms where there was no cold air to work with and we still saw rain from a track that would be supportive of a snowstorm. The pattern will also be more favorable, with a trough returning to the East (-NAO/+PNA pattern). And with this in place, we have a storm developing in the United States that could affect the area between January 29 and February 2. Details are still unclear of this storm, as models are having a hard time handling this storm considering how far out this is, but this time period is one to watch out for our next storm potential.
Score: 2/4
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday Night: Rain, heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. Low temperatures will be steady from Sunday's highs, and rise after midnight into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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Short Term Forecast (Friday Night to Sunday):
As skies clear tonight, more cooling takes place, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than today, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As a storm approaches from our west, temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 40s with cloudy skies, and showers possible after 3 PM.
Medium Range Forecast (Monday to Thursday):
The storm will continue to impact the area until Monday. As the cold front of the storm passes through the region, heavy rain will fall with thunderstorms also possible, however any thunderstorm should not be severe. During this time, temperatures will also rise overnight. The rain will then end Monday morning to early afternoon with a total of 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is possible in some locations. High temperatures will also then peak on Monday morning and afternoon, with high temperaures in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.
As this storm draws in much colder temperatures, Tuesday will have more sunshine again with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. As we will also have a fresh supply of cold air in the Great Lakes and Midwest, which we did not have since the warm up started, this will allow temperatures to continue cooling down. Wednesday's high temperatures will be back into the 30s, and by Thursday, the interior may see high temperatures in the 20s, which was not seen for more than a week.
Long Range Update and Possible Storm:
The long range is when things get very interesting for us once again. We now have a fresh supply of cold air to our north and west, which will allow any storm moving through to take in cold air, so if we get a coastal low, the area would see frozen precipitation from it, unlike the previous storms where there was no cold air to work with and we still saw rain from a track that would be supportive of a snowstorm. The pattern will also be more favorable, with a trough returning to the East (-NAO/+PNA pattern). And with this in place, we have a storm developing in the United States that could affect the area between January 29 and February 2. Details are still unclear of this storm, as models are having a hard time handling this storm considering how far out this is, but this time period is one to watch out for our next storm potential.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Jan 21: Heavy Rain For Monday
Verification For Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
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Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night to Saturday):
For tonight, it appears that the storm will stay far south enough to allow for cloud cover to remain partly cloudy, so I have lowered the forecast temepratures tonight, also due to the temperatures currently falling steadily. Places farther north and west from NYC will have lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s, the immediate suburbs (Bergen, Westchester counties) will have lows in the lower to mid 20s, and New York City will have lows in the mid to upper 20s.
For tomorrow, the storm remains to our south with mostly cloudy skies, however an isolated rain or snow shower from NYC south is not out of the question. As skies clear tomorrow night, more cooling takes place, with low temperatures similar to tonight. Saturday will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than Friday, in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Monday's Heavy Rain and Medium Range (Sunday to Wednesday):
Another storm then sets to affect the area. Sunday will be cloudy with a chance of afternoon showers, with high temperatures in the mid 40s. Overnight, temperatures will continue to rise with rain, heavy at times. The rain will end on Monday morning, with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. High temperatures will also then peak in the lower to mid 50s across the area.
Overnight on Monday, as the cold front passes through, we will see temperatures falling into the 30s for the lows, with high temperatures for Tuesday in the 40s, nowhere as mild as Monday. Wednesday will continue with the cool down, with high temperatures returning into the 30s.
Long Range Update:
For the longer range, as the cold once again becomes established in the northern United States, another storm could affect the area for the end of January to the start of February. Details are still unknown about this storm, however at this time it is likely that we should not have the problem of a lack of cold air as we do now.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
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Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night to Saturday):
For tonight, it appears that the storm will stay far south enough to allow for cloud cover to remain partly cloudy, so I have lowered the forecast temepratures tonight, also due to the temperatures currently falling steadily. Places farther north and west from NYC will have lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s, the immediate suburbs (Bergen, Westchester counties) will have lows in the lower to mid 20s, and New York City will have lows in the mid to upper 20s.
For tomorrow, the storm remains to our south with mostly cloudy skies, however an isolated rain or snow shower from NYC south is not out of the question. As skies clear tomorrow night, more cooling takes place, with low temperatures similar to tonight. Saturday will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than Friday, in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Monday's Heavy Rain and Medium Range (Sunday to Wednesday):
Another storm then sets to affect the area. Sunday will be cloudy with a chance of afternoon showers, with high temperatures in the mid 40s. Overnight, temperatures will continue to rise with rain, heavy at times. The rain will end on Monday morning, with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. High temperatures will also then peak in the lower to mid 50s across the area.
Overnight on Monday, as the cold front passes through, we will see temperatures falling into the 30s for the lows, with high temperatures for Tuesday in the 40s, nowhere as mild as Monday. Wednesday will continue with the cool down, with high temperatures returning into the 30s.
Long Range Update:
For the longer range, as the cold once again becomes established in the northern United States, another storm could affect the area for the end of January to the start of February. Details are still unknown about this storm, however at this time it is likely that we should not have the problem of a lack of cold air as we do now.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Jan 20: Friday Storm Unlikely, Long Range
Verification For Tuesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Partly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified, except for a few parts of the area that reached the mid 40s.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Friday: Cloudy. Light rain or snow showers possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
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Friday Storm Unlikely:
While at first, it seemed as if the models were about to trend back north and affect the area, and some did even trend slightly north, the forecast models took a significant trend to the south, now not even impacting the New York City area along with northern New Jersey, but barely even impacting Philadelphia. There is a model consensus for this to stay to our south, so it does not look likely that we will have any impact of more than a few rain or snow showers with this storm. Afterwards, Saturday will be mainly sunny with temperatures going back into the 40s.
Heavy Rain Threat For Monday:
The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday's forecast, however the models are now hinting at a heavy rain event, along with unusually mild temperatures. After highs on Sunday peaking in the mid 40s, temperatures will remain steady through the evening, and as the storm's cold front approaches the area, we will start to see rain, heavy at times. Through the overnight hours, temperatures will rise, and peak in the mid to upper 50s during Monday morning and afternoon, when the storm exits the area. The forecast models are showing the potential of up to 2 inches of rain with this storm, and at this time I am thinking that 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible with this storm. Flooding could be a concern for some areas.
After this storm, it will get colder, but the question is how cold will it get. The latest models have backed away from any significant cold and take temperatures to at least seasonal. While I think that temperatures will possibly be slightly below average, we are not looking at any arctic cold outbreak until February, if we even see another one this winter. Another storm could then affect the area between January 29 and February 1.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Partly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified, except for a few parts of the area that reached the mid 40s.
Score: 4/4
Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Friday: Cloudy. Light rain or snow showers possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
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Friday Storm Unlikely:
While at first, it seemed as if the models were about to trend back north and affect the area, and some did even trend slightly north, the forecast models took a significant trend to the south, now not even impacting the New York City area along with northern New Jersey, but barely even impacting Philadelphia. There is a model consensus for this to stay to our south, so it does not look likely that we will have any impact of more than a few rain or snow showers with this storm. Afterwards, Saturday will be mainly sunny with temperatures going back into the 40s.
Heavy Rain Threat For Monday:
The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday's forecast, however the models are now hinting at a heavy rain event, along with unusually mild temperatures. After highs on Sunday peaking in the mid 40s, temperatures will remain steady through the evening, and as the storm's cold front approaches the area, we will start to see rain, heavy at times. Through the overnight hours, temperatures will rise, and peak in the mid to upper 50s during Monday morning and afternoon, when the storm exits the area. The forecast models are showing the potential of up to 2 inches of rain with this storm, and at this time I am thinking that 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible with this storm. Flooding could be a concern for some areas.
After this storm, it will get colder, but the question is how cold will it get. The latest models have backed away from any significant cold and take temperatures to at least seasonal. While I think that temperatures will possibly be slightly below average, we are not looking at any arctic cold outbreak until February, if we even see another one this winter. Another storm could then affect the area between January 29 and February 1.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Jan 19: Friday Storm Update
Verification For Monday: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. For NYC and closer to the coast, it was a little warmer than the forecast, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. However, for inland locations, temperatures were much warmer, also in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Score: 2/4
Verification For Monday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast mainly verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered rain/snow showers after noon. I expected high temperatures to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. For inland locations, the forecast verified, however NYC and areas closer to the coast had highs in the mid 40s instead of the lower 40s.
Score: 3/4
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Partly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
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Update on Friday's Storm:
As I mentioned yesterday, a storm will impact the Mid Atlantic region on Friday. However, during today's runs, the forecast models have trended further south with this storm, to the point that it does not impact the area at all, and even barely has an impact in Philadelphia. Despite the models having a general agreement on this staying to our south, it is not very likely that this exact solution will happen when we are 3 days away from this storm, so some changes are still possible.
This storm is currently expected to impact Washington DC with a moderate wintry mix, Philadelphia with a light wintry mix, and NYC with nothing or a few rain/snow showers. While I do think it will be further north than that, I do not think that it will be by a lot. So at this time, I am expecting light rain/snow showers for Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Longer Range Update:
After this storm, Saturday will still be chilly with highs near 40. By Sunday, however, as a storm moves far to our north and west, temperatures will slowly warm, with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday. As the storm's cold front reaches the area, rain will fall from Sunday night to Monday morning, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures will be near steady or possibly rising on Sunday night to peak in the mid to possibly upper 50s for Monday morning to afternoon, unusually warm for this time of the year.
After this storm, it will be colder, with highs on Tuesday returning into the 40s. Afterwards, high temperatures could probably drop even further into the 30s, however there is uncertainty on the time period afterwards, concerning how long this cold lasts, if we get another warm up afterwards, and if any snowstorm comes during this time period.
Score: 2/4
Verification For Monday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast mainly verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered rain/snow showers after noon. I expected high temperatures to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. For inland locations, the forecast verified, however NYC and areas closer to the coast had highs in the mid 40s instead of the lower 40s.
Score: 3/4
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Partly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
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Update on Friday's Storm:
As I mentioned yesterday, a storm will impact the Mid Atlantic region on Friday. However, during today's runs, the forecast models have trended further south with this storm, to the point that it does not impact the area at all, and even barely has an impact in Philadelphia. Despite the models having a general agreement on this staying to our south, it is not very likely that this exact solution will happen when we are 3 days away from this storm, so some changes are still possible.
This storm is currently expected to impact Washington DC with a moderate wintry mix, Philadelphia with a light wintry mix, and NYC with nothing or a few rain/snow showers. While I do think it will be further north than that, I do not think that it will be by a lot. So at this time, I am expecting light rain/snow showers for Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Longer Range Update:
After this storm, Saturday will still be chilly with highs near 40. By Sunday, however, as a storm moves far to our north and west, temperatures will slowly warm, with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday. As the storm's cold front reaches the area, rain will fall from Sunday night to Monday morning, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures will be near steady or possibly rising on Sunday night to peak in the mid to possibly upper 50s for Monday morning to afternoon, unusually warm for this time of the year.
After this storm, it will be colder, with highs on Tuesday returning into the 40s. Afterwards, high temperatures could probably drop even further into the 30s, however there is uncertainty on the time period afterwards, concerning how long this cold lasts, if we get another warm up afterwards, and if any snowstorm comes during this time period.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Jan 18: Update On Upcoming Storms
Verification for Saturday: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4
Verification for Saturday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. I had to update my forecast lows during the evening to slightly lower them, as there was unexpected radiational cooling with mainly clear skies. Due to that, interior locations were colder than my forecast, in the lower to mid 20s, while areas near NYC verified.
Score: 2/4
Verification for Sunday: I expected showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts were over my forecast of 0.2 inch, though the rain did start between 12-3 PM. The forecast highs verified.
Score: 3/4
Verification for Sunday Night: I expected rain, mixing with freezing rain and sleet in Sussex and Orange counties. I expected low temperatures to be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The rain totals busted, as the rain did not redevelop and become heavy overnight. There was still some rain, but not heavy amounts. The low temperatures did remain steady and even rise overnight, and the forecast low temperatures were correct.
Score: 3/4
Today: Partly Cloudy skies. Mild. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers possible after noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Forecast for this week:
As the forecast above shows, we will have a chance of scattered rain/snow showers for tomorrow and also Wednesday, however we are not looking at any accumulating snowfall for the interior locations. After this brief rain/snow shower event passes, the temperatures becomes colder, with highs on Wednesday and Thursday generally in the 30s.
However, by Friday, we have another storm coming up. At this time, the forecast models are taking this storm to our south, however I am thinking that the storm ends up trending north on the models to affect the area. The precipitation type, however, is still a question. We still have the problem with the lack of cold air, as we remain in this relatively mild pattern, so despite it being the middle of winter, just because we are shown to be in the northern edge of the storm does not mean that it will be plain snow. So while uncertainty remains for Friday's precipitation type, it is likely that there will be precipitation on Friday.
Brief warm-up and storm for Jan 24-26:
As I said in my previous update on Saturday, we are going to have a storm move well to our north and west by Monday, January 25, bringing rain and warmer temperatures to the area. As soon as the storm exits the area on Friday/Saturday, we will have a rather significant but brief warm up. High temperatures will be unusually mild, in the 50s for Sunday and Monday. By Monday, the storm will bring rain to the area along with a cold front, and this will end the current mild spell.
While the big cool down will not immediately happen, the pattern will begin to become much more favorable for a cold and potentially snowy pattern. The NAO and AO will become negative, which is supportive for cold in the East, however the PNA (West Coast pattern) is still in question whether it becomes negative, neutral or positive. However, the pattern will be much more favorable for snow than it is as of now, and we may have to watch for our next storm at the end of January to the start of February.
Score: 4/4
Verification for Saturday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. I had to update my forecast lows during the evening to slightly lower them, as there was unexpected radiational cooling with mainly clear skies. Due to that, interior locations were colder than my forecast, in the lower to mid 20s, while areas near NYC verified.
Score: 2/4
Verification for Sunday: I expected showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts were over my forecast of 0.2 inch, though the rain did start between 12-3 PM. The forecast highs verified.
Score: 3/4
Verification for Sunday Night: I expected rain, mixing with freezing rain and sleet in Sussex and Orange counties. I expected low temperatures to be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The rain totals busted, as the rain did not redevelop and become heavy overnight. There was still some rain, but not heavy amounts. The low temperatures did remain steady and even rise overnight, and the forecast low temperatures were correct.
Score: 3/4
Today: Partly Cloudy skies. Mild. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers possible after noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Forecast for this week:
As the forecast above shows, we will have a chance of scattered rain/snow showers for tomorrow and also Wednesday, however we are not looking at any accumulating snowfall for the interior locations. After this brief rain/snow shower event passes, the temperatures becomes colder, with highs on Wednesday and Thursday generally in the 30s.
However, by Friday, we have another storm coming up. At this time, the forecast models are taking this storm to our south, however I am thinking that the storm ends up trending north on the models to affect the area. The precipitation type, however, is still a question. We still have the problem with the lack of cold air, as we remain in this relatively mild pattern, so despite it being the middle of winter, just because we are shown to be in the northern edge of the storm does not mean that it will be plain snow. So while uncertainty remains for Friday's precipitation type, it is likely that there will be precipitation on Friday.
Brief warm-up and storm for Jan 24-26:
As I said in my previous update on Saturday, we are going to have a storm move well to our north and west by Monday, January 25, bringing rain and warmer temperatures to the area. As soon as the storm exits the area on Friday/Saturday, we will have a rather significant but brief warm up. High temperatures will be unusually mild, in the 50s for Sunday and Monday. By Monday, the storm will bring rain to the area along with a cold front, and this will end the current mild spell.
While the big cool down will not immediately happen, the pattern will begin to become much more favorable for a cold and potentially snowy pattern. The NAO and AO will become negative, which is supportive for cold in the East, however the PNA (West Coast pattern) is still in question whether it becomes negative, neutral or positive. However, the pattern will be much more favorable for snow than it is as of now, and we may have to watch for our next storm at the end of January to the start of February.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Jan 16: Latest Storm Forecast
Verification For Friday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Due to mainly cloudy skies, the whole area busted, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the area.
Score: 1/4
Today: Partly Cloudy. Mild. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. (Forecast lows were updated at 8 PM)
Tomorrow: Cloudy. Showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.2 inch.
Tomorrow Night: Rain, heavy at times. Freezing rain and sleet may mix in after midnight for Sussex and Orange counties. Low temperatures will be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 2 inches.
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Latest Update on Tomorrow's Storm:
During the afternoon hours tomorrow, precipitation should start falling as the storm approaches the area. Most of the region should start out with rain, however areas in Sussex/Orange counties may briefly start out with some snow or sleet. During the evening to early overnight hours, the whole area will see rain becoming moderate to heavy at times, with rainfall amounts generally near 1 inch to locally 2 inches. After midnight, however, freezing rain, sleet and possibly snow should start mixing in for Sussex and Orange counties. At this time, snow accumulations should be very little, if any, while freezing rain amounts up to 0.2 inch are possible. The storm will end on Monday morning, with temperatures for Monday rising into the 40s.
Forecast for Next Week:
Tuesday remains dry, with high temperatures generally in the 40s. By Wednesday, however, the GFS model has been hinting at a light precipitation event for the area. At this time, the GFS is one of the only models showing this, while the other models keep this time period dry. While I do think that it will be dry at this time, I would not be surprised to see scattered rain/snow showers on Wednesday.
After Wednesday, temperatures are expected to briefly cool down a little, with high temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s, but then we have another storm that will affect the area for Friday. This storm, unlike tomorrow's storm, should not form in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning that it will not be as wet as tomorrow's storm. The latest forecast models have this storm forming near Oklahoma, and moving east to ENE from there. However, where it ends up is a question.
In the past day of runs, there has been a wide variety of tracks, ranging from as far north as the storm tracking over NYC, to as far south as Florida. Despite the track, there is still the issue of the lack of cold air for this storm. For now, I am thinking that this storm should bring rain to the area.
Third Storm for the 24-26th:
Another storm is then expected to affect NYC between January 24 and 26. There has been model consistency in taking this storm well to our north and west, which would at first briefly draw in unseasonable warmth (temperatures into the 40s/50s for 1 or 2 days), followed by rain and then colder temperatures.
However, after this storm exits the area, we are unlikely to return to the mild pattern. The current pattern outlook is starting to show a reversal of this mild pattern by the end of this month, with the positive NAO and AO (which are contributing to the mild conditions) becoming negative again. While it will take time for this to happen, by at least the first or second week of February, we should have returned into the cold pattern we were in until now. The question is, will we also get a snowy pattern with this cold?
Score: 1/4
Today: Partly Cloudy. Mild. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. (Forecast lows were updated at 8 PM)
Tomorrow: Cloudy. Showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.2 inch.
Tomorrow Night: Rain, heavy at times. Freezing rain and sleet may mix in after midnight for Sussex and Orange counties. Low temperatures will be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 2 inches.
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Latest Update on Tomorrow's Storm:
During the afternoon hours tomorrow, precipitation should start falling as the storm approaches the area. Most of the region should start out with rain, however areas in Sussex/Orange counties may briefly start out with some snow or sleet. During the evening to early overnight hours, the whole area will see rain becoming moderate to heavy at times, with rainfall amounts generally near 1 inch to locally 2 inches. After midnight, however, freezing rain, sleet and possibly snow should start mixing in for Sussex and Orange counties. At this time, snow accumulations should be very little, if any, while freezing rain amounts up to 0.2 inch are possible. The storm will end on Monday morning, with temperatures for Monday rising into the 40s.
Forecast for Next Week:
Tuesday remains dry, with high temperatures generally in the 40s. By Wednesday, however, the GFS model has been hinting at a light precipitation event for the area. At this time, the GFS is one of the only models showing this, while the other models keep this time period dry. While I do think that it will be dry at this time, I would not be surprised to see scattered rain/snow showers on Wednesday.
After Wednesday, temperatures are expected to briefly cool down a little, with high temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s, but then we have another storm that will affect the area for Friday. This storm, unlike tomorrow's storm, should not form in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning that it will not be as wet as tomorrow's storm. The latest forecast models have this storm forming near Oklahoma, and moving east to ENE from there. However, where it ends up is a question.
In the past day of runs, there has been a wide variety of tracks, ranging from as far north as the storm tracking over NYC, to as far south as Florida. Despite the track, there is still the issue of the lack of cold air for this storm. For now, I am thinking that this storm should bring rain to the area.
Third Storm for the 24-26th:
Another storm is then expected to affect NYC between January 24 and 26. There has been model consistency in taking this storm well to our north and west, which would at first briefly draw in unseasonable warmth (temperatures into the 40s/50s for 1 or 2 days), followed by rain and then colder temperatures.
However, after this storm exits the area, we are unlikely to return to the mild pattern. The current pattern outlook is starting to show a reversal of this mild pattern by the end of this month, with the positive NAO and AO (which are contributing to the mild conditions) becoming negative again. While it will take time for this to happen, by at least the first or second week of February, we should have returned into the cold pattern we were in until now. The question is, will we also get a snowy pattern with this cold?
Friday, January 15, 2010
Jan 15: Stormy Pattern Develops
Overall Verification Score: I am going to start doing a verification score system, out of possible 4 points (6 points during precipitation events). Below is how the forecasts will be verified:
2 points for correct forecast
1 point for slightly off
0 points for way off
Maximum: 2 points for temperatures, 2 points for conditions, 2 points for precipitation (if any).
Verification For Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While the temperatures north and west of NYC verified, for NYC the forecast was too cold, with Central Park reporting a low near 30 degrees.
Score: 3/4
Verification For Thursday: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Thursday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. My forecast was a little warmer than the actual temperatures, with interior areas seeing lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s, and NYC and closer to the coast having lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 3/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
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Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. Mild. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to possibly lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Cloudy. Showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.2 inch.
Sunday Night: Heavy Rain. Snow and sleet may mix in at times for Sussex and Orange counties. Low temperatures will be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 2 inches.
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Weekend Storm:
Looks like the storm is coming in further west and stronger than was originally expected. Also, as this is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico loaded with moisture, this should be a very wet storm, meaning that there will be a lot of precipitation with this. However, as the storm is further west, it is also warmer than originally expected. And as at first, we were looking at a mix of rain and snow, now we are looking at rain for the whole area except for interior areas (Sussex/Orange counties), where the potential for snow and ice remains. However, I do not think that more than 1-2 inches of snow/ice will fall anywhere in the area.
During Sunday night, the storm tracking west of the Appalachian Mountains is expected to transfer its energy to another intensifying storm, however this storm will move almost inland, almost hugging the coast. Heavy rain will overspread the area, with 1 to 2 inches possible by the time that the storm ends on Monday morning.
After this storm, conditions clear and temperatures generally stay in the 30s and 40s through early next week.
Second Storm: Thursday-Saturday Next Week (Jan 21-23)
During Wednesday, we could see the mild temperatures easing up a little, with highs returning generally into the 30s. However, we have ourselves another storm for late next week to early next weekend. Parts of the storm that will affect California during mid week could help form this storm, which at this time appears to form also near the Gulf of Mexico, however it could end up being further north/south than currently modeled. The GFS model takes this storm northeast, and with barely enough cold air, brings snow to the area. Another model, the DGEX, takes this storm out to sea without affecting us.
However, as there is still no major pattern change yet, we could still have the problem of a lack of cold air for this storm. The pattern for this storm is expected to be a -PNA (west coast trough), a +NAO, and a neutral AO, which is not too favorable for an East Coast snowstorm, however the pattern is showing signs of starting to turn around by this time period. While we still have a lot of time to watch this storm, chances are that this will probably not turn into a major snowstorm for the area.
Potential Third Storm and Longer Range
The next potential for a storm exists during January 25-27. Details are still unknown at this time range, however according to the pattern and the forecast models, this storm has the potential to turn the pattern colder. When we have the mild conditions next week, this can actually be considered a "pattern reload", as by the time that February comes, we are likely to return to the cold. Whether we see a snowy pattern or not is still a question.
2 points for correct forecast
1 point for slightly off
0 points for way off
Maximum: 2 points for temperatures, 2 points for conditions, 2 points for precipitation (if any).
Verification For Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While the temperatures north and west of NYC verified, for NYC the forecast was too cold, with Central Park reporting a low near 30 degrees.
Score: 3/4
Verification For Thursday: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
Verification For Thursday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. My forecast was a little warmer than the actual temperatures, with interior areas seeing lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s, and NYC and closer to the coast having lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 3/4
Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4
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Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. Mild. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to possibly lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Cloudy. Showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.2 inch.
Sunday Night: Heavy Rain. Snow and sleet may mix in at times for Sussex and Orange counties. Low temperatures will be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 2 inches.
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Weekend Storm:
Looks like the storm is coming in further west and stronger than was originally expected. Also, as this is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico loaded with moisture, this should be a very wet storm, meaning that there will be a lot of precipitation with this. However, as the storm is further west, it is also warmer than originally expected. And as at first, we were looking at a mix of rain and snow, now we are looking at rain for the whole area except for interior areas (Sussex/Orange counties), where the potential for snow and ice remains. However, I do not think that more than 1-2 inches of snow/ice will fall anywhere in the area.
During Sunday night, the storm tracking west of the Appalachian Mountains is expected to transfer its energy to another intensifying storm, however this storm will move almost inland, almost hugging the coast. Heavy rain will overspread the area, with 1 to 2 inches possible by the time that the storm ends on Monday morning.
After this storm, conditions clear and temperatures generally stay in the 30s and 40s through early next week.
Second Storm: Thursday-Saturday Next Week (Jan 21-23)
During Wednesday, we could see the mild temperatures easing up a little, with highs returning generally into the 30s. However, we have ourselves another storm for late next week to early next weekend. Parts of the storm that will affect California during mid week could help form this storm, which at this time appears to form also near the Gulf of Mexico, however it could end up being further north/south than currently modeled. The GFS model takes this storm northeast, and with barely enough cold air, brings snow to the area. Another model, the DGEX, takes this storm out to sea without affecting us.
However, as there is still no major pattern change yet, we could still have the problem of a lack of cold air for this storm. The pattern for this storm is expected to be a -PNA (west coast trough), a +NAO, and a neutral AO, which is not too favorable for an East Coast snowstorm, however the pattern is showing signs of starting to turn around by this time period. While we still have a lot of time to watch this storm, chances are that this will probably not turn into a major snowstorm for the area.
Potential Third Storm and Longer Range
The next potential for a storm exists during January 25-27. Details are still unknown at this time range, however according to the pattern and the forecast models, this storm has the potential to turn the pattern colder. When we have the mild conditions next week, this can actually be considered a "pattern reload", as by the time that February comes, we are likely to return to the cold. Whether we see a snowy pattern or not is still a question.
Poll Results for Weekend Storm
Below are the poll results for this storm, which both polls were closed earlier this afternoon. The choice with the most votes in each poll has been put in bold.
Precipitation type from this storm: (Poll was open during Tuesday-Friday, total of 12 votes)
No effect: 1 vote
Snow: 3 votes
Rain/Snow: 6 votes
Rain: 2 votes
Storm Track: (Poll was open from last weekend until today, total of 47 votes)
Out to sea (no impact): 8 votes
East (typically little snow): 4 votes
Offshore (typically snow): 23 votes
Along the coast (typically rain/snow): 11 votes
Inland (rain): 1 vote
Today's update will be posted soon.
Precipitation type from this storm: (Poll was open during Tuesday-Friday, total of 12 votes)
No effect: 1 vote
Snow: 3 votes
Rain/Snow: 6 votes
Rain: 2 votes
Storm Track: (Poll was open from last weekend until today, total of 47 votes)
Out to sea (no impact): 8 votes
East (typically little snow): 4 votes
Offshore (typically snow): 23 votes
Along the coast (typically rain/snow): 11 votes
Inland (rain): 1 vote
Today's update will be posted soon.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Jan 13: Weekend And M.L.K Day Forecast
Verification for Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Friday: Mostly Sunny. Mild. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Weekend Forecast:
Saturday is expected to stay mainly sunny with high temperatures still in the 40s, with Sunday slightly cooler, with inland locations seeing highs in the upper 30s. Then comes the greater uncertainty with the storm, which should affect the area between Sunday evening and Monday morning. The GFS model has trended considerably north, however it even went further north than I expected, bringing a soaking heavy rain to the area. This is actually a very possible solution, because we have a lack of cold air, and a storm that moves close to us, bringing heavier precipitation (which in this case, would be in the form of rain).
What we do know is that this storm will bring precipitation to the area, possibly moderate/heavy at times, and that it will be warm enough for this to not be a snowstorm. While the main precipitation type should be rain, it is very possible that we may get some snow/ice to start, with the coast being the least likely to see this, and chances of this becoming more likely further inland, away from NYC.
The storm will end on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Monday) during the morning, with the afternoon and evening likely seeing mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s at this time. After this storm, temperatures generally stay near-slightly above average through most of next week.
Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Friday: Mostly Sunny. Mild. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Weekend Forecast:
Saturday is expected to stay mainly sunny with high temperatures still in the 40s, with Sunday slightly cooler, with inland locations seeing highs in the upper 30s. Then comes the greater uncertainty with the storm, which should affect the area between Sunday evening and Monday morning. The GFS model has trended considerably north, however it even went further north than I expected, bringing a soaking heavy rain to the area. This is actually a very possible solution, because we have a lack of cold air, and a storm that moves close to us, bringing heavier precipitation (which in this case, would be in the form of rain).
What we do know is that this storm will bring precipitation to the area, possibly moderate/heavy at times, and that it will be warm enough for this to not be a snowstorm. While the main precipitation type should be rain, it is very possible that we may get some snow/ice to start, with the coast being the least likely to see this, and chances of this becoming more likely further inland, away from NYC.
The storm will end on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Monday) during the morning, with the afternoon and evening likely seeing mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s at this time. After this storm, temperatures generally stay near-slightly above average through most of next week.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Updated Scenario Map
Below is my most recently updated scenario map for next weekend's storm. This map is subject to change.
Light Gray = Light Snow
Gray = Snow/Mix
Purple = Rain/Snow/Mix
Green = Mix
Jan 12: End of the cold, for now
Verification for Monday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While I was right for NYC's temps, I was too cold for the interior. The actual lows there were also in the lower to mid 20s, slightly warmer than what I expected.
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Other than the cloud cover being mostly sunny, the temperatures were correct.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the region.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.
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Poll Update: Due to the remaining uncertainty about the storm and the fact that there will be more options than just rain or snow, I decided to add a second poll, so the current poll will be about the storm track and the second poll will be for precipitation type. Both polls will close on Friday afternoon.
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Weekend Update:
I am still keeping my discussion from yesterday at this time. The models have trended towards the suppressed solution at this time, with the storm getting no further north than Virginia. I am thinking that it does end up being further north than that, though the question is how far north, and what the precipitation type will be for the area.
One problem that we have with this storm is the amount of warm air with this storm. High temperatures are also expected to be in the 30s, which is typically not supportive of seeing plain snow. Due to the pattern change that is starting to develop, we do not have a source of major cold air that the storm can draw in. And even if there was, the storm would not be able to pull in too much cold air as it is shown to be relatively weak.
Another run showing the problem with the warm temperatures is the most recent 18z GFS run. As it showed, the storm did begin trending further north, however the run was much warmer than previous runs, bringing mainly rain to the area.
At this time, I am going for something in between my two scenario maps from yesterday. A scenario where we do get the storm to bring precipitation to the area, but it should be in the form of rain/snow. Though it will not be until at least late this week when we have a much better idea of how this storm will affect the area.
Long Range Update: January 20 through February 5
After this storm that we have, indications are that the pattern will turn warmer than average for the eastern 2/3 of the US. The cold is going to be retreating into Canada, while mild temperatures (warm over the South) develop and push north and east, reaching our area around or a little after January 20.
With this pattern, a west coast trough will develop, resulting in colder and much wetter conditions for the West as the storm track goes through California. This, however, will result in a much further west storm track, with a potential storm around January 24-26th also possibly taking this track, which would be through the northern Midwest or the Great Lakes. The result would be much warmer conditions for us, with high temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s.
However, by late January or early February, signs are that this pattern might try to break down. While still uncertain due to being in the longer range, if this does happen, then we may return to a possibly cold and snowy pattern, though it should not be as cold as this month was up to now.
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Other than the cloud cover being mostly sunny, the temperatures were correct.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the region.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.
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Poll Update: Due to the remaining uncertainty about the storm and the fact that there will be more options than just rain or snow, I decided to add a second poll, so the current poll will be about the storm track and the second poll will be for precipitation type. Both polls will close on Friday afternoon.
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Weekend Update:
I am still keeping my discussion from yesterday at this time. The models have trended towards the suppressed solution at this time, with the storm getting no further north than Virginia. I am thinking that it does end up being further north than that, though the question is how far north, and what the precipitation type will be for the area.
One problem that we have with this storm is the amount of warm air with this storm. High temperatures are also expected to be in the 30s, which is typically not supportive of seeing plain snow. Due to the pattern change that is starting to develop, we do not have a source of major cold air that the storm can draw in. And even if there was, the storm would not be able to pull in too much cold air as it is shown to be relatively weak.
Another run showing the problem with the warm temperatures is the most recent 18z GFS run. As it showed, the storm did begin trending further north, however the run was much warmer than previous runs, bringing mainly rain to the area.
At this time, I am going for something in between my two scenario maps from yesterday. A scenario where we do get the storm to bring precipitation to the area, but it should be in the form of rain/snow. Though it will not be until at least late this week when we have a much better idea of how this storm will affect the area.
Long Range Update: January 20 through February 5
After this storm that we have, indications are that the pattern will turn warmer than average for the eastern 2/3 of the US. The cold is going to be retreating into Canada, while mild temperatures (warm over the South) develop and push north and east, reaching our area around or a little after January 20.
With this pattern, a west coast trough will develop, resulting in colder and much wetter conditions for the West as the storm track goes through California. This, however, will result in a much further west storm track, with a potential storm around January 24-26th also possibly taking this track, which would be through the northern Midwest or the Great Lakes. The result would be much warmer conditions for us, with high temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s.
However, by late January or early February, signs are that this pattern might try to break down. While still uncertain due to being in the longer range, if this does happen, then we may return to a possibly cold and snowy pattern, though it should not be as cold as this month was up to now.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Jan 11: Late weekend storm, long range warmth?
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible before noon. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the region.
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Late Week Warm-Up Scenario:
A relatively quick warm up will be in store for the region late this week. After Wednesday, which as the forecast above shows will still have highs in the low to mid 30s, a warm up from our west will be affecting our region on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures on both days will be above average, peaking in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. By Saturday, we should get a small cool down with highs returning into the 30s.
Late Weekend Storm:
For the storm late next weekend, there is a lot of uncertainty on what solution happens with the storm. What we do know at this time is that there is a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico (represented by the L (low pressure) in the map below), and there is a relatively weak cold air mass with a high pressure in the north:
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible before noon. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the region.
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Late Week Warm-Up Scenario:
A relatively quick warm up will be in store for the region late this week. After Wednesday, which as the forecast above shows will still have highs in the low to mid 30s, a warm up from our west will be affecting our region on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures on both days will be above average, peaking in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. By Saturday, we should get a small cool down with highs returning into the 30s.
Late Weekend Storm:
For the storm late next weekend, there is a lot of uncertainty on what solution happens with the storm. What we do know at this time is that there is a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico (represented by the L (low pressure) in the map below), and there is a relatively weak cold air mass with a high pressure in the north:
However, what happens afterwards is where the uncertainty begins. At first, the GFS ensembles were consistent on a coastal low solution with snow along and north of Interstate 95. Several other models were showing a solution where the storm starts going towards the Appalachians (called an Apps runner), however then transfers its energy to a developing coastal low, that brings a wider area of snow and ice. The high pressure in southern Canada stays in place, keeping at least some of the cold in place.
However, the models today ended that consistency. On the GFS model, which last night showed a big snow/ice storm for the northern Mid-Atlantic, the storm is now not even able to make it further north than North Carolina, bringing rain to the parts of the Southeast it impacts except for the mountains of western North Carolina. There have been several other models showing this solution, including the DGEX. However, there are also models still showing the Apps runner to coastal scenario, including the GGEM.
Which solution is going to be the most likely out of these two is the most difficult part to answer. The high pressure in southern Canada will prevent this from going all the way up the Apps and producing rain for the area, meaning that if it does try to take that route, it will have to transfer energy to a coastal low, which would bring snow, ice and rain to the area. This is shown in Scenario A below.
However, if it does not try to go up the Apps and continues moving through the Southeast, we will have two possible solutions, one of them being the out to sea solution, shown in Scenario B. In this scenario, however, there would not be a lot of cold air with this storm, and other than the mountains in westen North Carolina which would see snow/ice, the rest of the Southeast sees mainly rain.
The other scenario, which I did not show, is where the storm goes near the benchmark (40N/70W), which is a location favorable for snow along Interstate 95, and produces snow along that region. I am not in favor of this solution at this time, but we cannot rule anything out yet due to the uncertainty.
Below are my two scenario maps for this storm at this time, and they are subject to change. Also keep in mind that there are several other possible solutions, however I decided to focus on these two solution as I think that they have the highest probability of happening at this time.
Long Range Update, Warmth Possible?
On January, we typically see at least one period of mild weather, called the January thaw. In last year's January, that was only temperatures briefly in the 40s before returning into the 20s. However, going back to January 2007, record warmth affected the area as highs warmed into the 70s, making it feel like June instead of January. Some trees and plants even started to briefly grow again.
Luckily, this time, we should not be seeing anything extreme, but still something warmer than what we are seeing now. The long range GFS model is showing significant warming in our area after January 20th, with temperatures as much as 10 degrees above average, meaning high temperatures in the 40-50s. And if we were to go by that model, this would not be brief, but a sustained warm up across all of the United States and even parts of Canada.
While this is too far in the long range to be certain, the pattern is also supportive of a warm up happening, so for now, it's most likely safe to say that we will be seeing above average temperatures after January 20th. However, how much above average temperatures will be, how long this lasts and when we get a return of the cold and snow is still a question.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Jan 9: Cold may stay around longer
Verification for Friday Night: My forecast was correct, with areas north and west of NYC seeing lows in the mid to upper 10s, and NYC's lows in the lower 20s.
Today: Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Clear. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Early to mid week perhaps not as cold?
After what initially appeared to be a mild start to the week, the forecast models are holding the cold around longer. Monday will be slightly warmer than this weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. With what appeas to be a reinforcement of the cold on Tuesday, highs stay in the upper 20s to mid 30s. By Thursday, however, signs are that the cold will significantly weaken, and in return, warming will take place. On that day, the whole area should be over 30 degrees, and Friday will be slightly warmer. Areas near New York City should see high temperatures in the lower 40s on both days.
Cold spell for next weekend and storm?
After this brief 2-day stretch of mild temperatures, things turn colder. The GFS model has been consistent in showing an arctic outbreak by next weekend, focusing on New England. However, at the same time, we also have a moisture-loaded storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Below is what this morning's GFS run (06z) showed:
Source of the 06z GFS model run: (The image above comes from the "850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn" section) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/model_m.shtml
For those who don't know how to read the map, the greens, blues and purples are showing precipitation, and anything north of the southernmost blue line typically represents temperatures below 32 degrees, and when the areas of precipitation are north of the southernmost blue line, that would typically mean snow or frozen precipitation.
What the models have nailed down is the formation of a storm in the western Gulf of Mexico by late next week or early next weekend. What happens afterwards is where the confusion happens. The model solutions have ranged from a storm tracking through the Ohio Valley bringing warmth and rain to the area, to a weak storm going far offshore with cold and dry conditions. However, the ensemble mean of the GFS model have been consistent for the past 4 days with the same solution, a storm tracking near the benchmark (benchmark is the name for the location of 40N/70W, which when storms pass near it, would typically mean snow for the cities from DC to Boston). This consistency is surprising, as it is very unusual to see an agreement with the ensembles this far out in the long range.
The current pattern shows a positive PNA (reflecting a western ridge, supportive for an East Coast storm), a negative NAO and a negative AO (but not as negative as now). These factors alone show that this storm has the potential to produce snow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, we have had a few cases this winter, most notably the New Year's Day storm and yesterday's light snow, where the storm never lived up to its potential and became something smaller, or in other cases, the storm went too far offshore that it did not give us anything, or too far inland that it brought rain. So while this is still in the long range and a lot of things may change in the forecast, we need to keep an eye on this time period for a potential storm.
Long Range Pattern Update:
After next weekend's storm, indications show that what happens afterwards may be a relief for those who do not like the cold and snow. The GFS model has been showing a significant warm up across the country after the 18-20th, and the end of the long range pattern outlooks also by this time period show the pattern turning into a -PNA (meaning trough and cold in the West Coast, which can mean a ridge and warm temperatures for the East), and a positive NAO and AO. While this is far in the long range and it may change, if this turns out to be correct, that would mean that by that time period, we may be seeing a warm up across the region to above average temperatures.
Today: Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tonight: Clear. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Early to mid week perhaps not as cold?
After what initially appeared to be a mild start to the week, the forecast models are holding the cold around longer. Monday will be slightly warmer than this weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. With what appeas to be a reinforcement of the cold on Tuesday, highs stay in the upper 20s to mid 30s. By Thursday, however, signs are that the cold will significantly weaken, and in return, warming will take place. On that day, the whole area should be over 30 degrees, and Friday will be slightly warmer. Areas near New York City should see high temperatures in the lower 40s on both days.
Cold spell for next weekend and storm?
After this brief 2-day stretch of mild temperatures, things turn colder. The GFS model has been consistent in showing an arctic outbreak by next weekend, focusing on New England. However, at the same time, we also have a moisture-loaded storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Below is what this morning's GFS run (06z) showed:
Source of the 06z GFS model run: (The image above comes from the "850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn" section) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/model_m.shtml
For those who don't know how to read the map, the greens, blues and purples are showing precipitation, and anything north of the southernmost blue line typically represents temperatures below 32 degrees, and when the areas of precipitation are north of the southernmost blue line, that would typically mean snow or frozen precipitation.
What the models have nailed down is the formation of a storm in the western Gulf of Mexico by late next week or early next weekend. What happens afterwards is where the confusion happens. The model solutions have ranged from a storm tracking through the Ohio Valley bringing warmth and rain to the area, to a weak storm going far offshore with cold and dry conditions. However, the ensemble mean of the GFS model have been consistent for the past 4 days with the same solution, a storm tracking near the benchmark (benchmark is the name for the location of 40N/70W, which when storms pass near it, would typically mean snow for the cities from DC to Boston). This consistency is surprising, as it is very unusual to see an agreement with the ensembles this far out in the long range.
The current pattern shows a positive PNA (reflecting a western ridge, supportive for an East Coast storm), a negative NAO and a negative AO (but not as negative as now). These factors alone show that this storm has the potential to produce snow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, we have had a few cases this winter, most notably the New Year's Day storm and yesterday's light snow, where the storm never lived up to its potential and became something smaller, or in other cases, the storm went too far offshore that it did not give us anything, or too far inland that it brought rain. So while this is still in the long range and a lot of things may change in the forecast, we need to keep an eye on this time period for a potential storm.
Long Range Pattern Update:
After next weekend's storm, indications show that what happens afterwards may be a relief for those who do not like the cold and snow. The GFS model has been showing a significant warm up across the country after the 18-20th, and the end of the long range pattern outlooks also by this time period show the pattern turning into a -PNA (meaning trough and cold in the West Coast, which can mean a ridge and warm temperatures for the East), and a positive NAO and AO. While this is far in the long range and it may change, if this turns out to be correct, that would mean that by that time period, we may be seeing a warm up across the region to above average temperatures.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Jan 8: Another storm for next weekend?
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Storm Verification:
I am going to do this by a few steps, by taking my thoughts from the longer range first, then my shorter range outlooks.
Thoughts from the long range: As the models showed a coastal storm affecting the Interstate 95 corridor, I began hinting about this storm back from my first forecast on December 25, and went into more details on January 2nd, when I said that the pattern is favorable for a coastal storm to track up the East Coast, but due to the uncertainty, I would wait until the shorter range before going into where the storm tracks and how much snow falls.
Shorter Range Thoughts: By January 4th, my confidence was high enough to do an in-depth discussion of the storm, what the models are showing, and what is likely to happen. My thoughts from interpreting the models of a 2-4 inch snowfall west of the Appalachians and less than 2 inches further east were mainly correct, though some areas in the central eastern Mid Atlantic (southern NJ, Delaware, far eastern Maryland) saw slightly over 2 inches due to enhancement from the intensifying storm.
I also correctly expected that the models will not have difficulties with predicting this storm, which is what happened, as from the day I made that post, the models stayed with mainly the same solution.
A map verification will be added later tonight or tomorrow.
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This Weekend:
As the forecast above shows, this weekend will be cold, with low temperatures possibly even reaching the single digits north and west from NYC. High temperatures should be in the 20s across the area. Though unlike the last cold spell, there will not be a lot of wind, so wind chills should not be as cold as last time.
Next Week's Forecast:
Temperatures will moderate through next week, from below average to near-slightly above average. While high temperatures will start out early next week in the upper 20s to mid 30s, by late next week the whole area should see temperatures in the 30s, with some locations passing 40 degrees. Conditions should remain dry through all of next week.
Another Storm Next Weekend?
By next weekend or early in the week afterwards, another storm could possibly affect the area. The long range GFS model is already showing a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. While this is far out in the long range, one thing I do have a higher confidence on is that other than the potential of this storm tracking offshore, it also has the potential to track inland, meaning that we may get something other than snow.
We are not looking at a massive arctic air mass like we are now, so suppression should not be a problem. In fact, there is not much of a cold air mass coming behind this storm. There will also be a warm up prior to this storm, with temperatures reaching the 40s in parts of the area. And considering other factors, such as the pattern and blocking for this storm not being too favorable, chances of this turning into a snowstorm for the Interstate 95 corridor are not very high at this time.
As of now, I would give this a 50-50 chance of either being a snow storm or a rain/mix storm, though it's too early to know for sure as this is still in the long range. Stay tuned for updates on this potential storm.
Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Storm Verification:
I am going to do this by a few steps, by taking my thoughts from the longer range first, then my shorter range outlooks.
Thoughts from the long range: As the models showed a coastal storm affecting the Interstate 95 corridor, I began hinting about this storm back from my first forecast on December 25, and went into more details on January 2nd, when I said that the pattern is favorable for a coastal storm to track up the East Coast, but due to the uncertainty, I would wait until the shorter range before going into where the storm tracks and how much snow falls.
Shorter Range Thoughts: By January 4th, my confidence was high enough to do an in-depth discussion of the storm, what the models are showing, and what is likely to happen. My thoughts from interpreting the models of a 2-4 inch snowfall west of the Appalachians and less than 2 inches further east were mainly correct, though some areas in the central eastern Mid Atlantic (southern NJ, Delaware, far eastern Maryland) saw slightly over 2 inches due to enhancement from the intensifying storm.
I also correctly expected that the models will not have difficulties with predicting this storm, which is what happened, as from the day I made that post, the models stayed with mainly the same solution.
A map verification will be added later tonight or tomorrow.
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This Weekend:
As the forecast above shows, this weekend will be cold, with low temperatures possibly even reaching the single digits north and west from NYC. High temperatures should be in the 20s across the area. Though unlike the last cold spell, there will not be a lot of wind, so wind chills should not be as cold as last time.
Next Week's Forecast:
Temperatures will moderate through next week, from below average to near-slightly above average. While high temperatures will start out early next week in the upper 20s to mid 30s, by late next week the whole area should see temperatures in the 30s, with some locations passing 40 degrees. Conditions should remain dry through all of next week.
Another Storm Next Weekend?
By next weekend or early in the week afterwards, another storm could possibly affect the area. The long range GFS model is already showing a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. While this is far out in the long range, one thing I do have a higher confidence on is that other than the potential of this storm tracking offshore, it also has the potential to track inland, meaning that we may get something other than snow.
We are not looking at a massive arctic air mass like we are now, so suppression should not be a problem. In fact, there is not much of a cold air mass coming behind this storm. There will also be a warm up prior to this storm, with temperatures reaching the 40s in parts of the area. And considering other factors, such as the pattern and blocking for this storm not being too favorable, chances of this turning into a snowstorm for the Interstate 95 corridor are not very high at this time.
As of now, I would give this a 50-50 chance of either being a snow storm or a rain/mix storm, though it's too early to know for sure as this is still in the long range. Stay tuned for updates on this potential storm.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Jan 7: Next week finally warming up
Verification for Wednesday Night: The actual lows were slightly warmer than my expectations. Areas north and west of NYC had lows in the mid 20s instead of the lower 20s, and areas in NYC and closer to the coast had lows in the upper 20s instead of the mid 30s.
Verification for Today: The forecast verified, with highs north and west of NYC in the mid 30s, and for NYC and closer to the coast in the upper 30s, which was in the forecast range.
Tonight: Light snow developing between 1 and 3 AM. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation up to 1/2 inch expected, with up to 1 inch for the immediate coast.
Tomorrow: Snow, mainly before noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches expected.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Tomorrow's Light Snow:
As the storm moves in from our west, expect snow to begin late tonight. The snow should be generally light but could be moderate at times near the coast. The snow will continue through tomorrow morning's rush hour and should end by the afternoon, with total snow amounts between 1-2 inches for most of the area except the immediate coast and Long Island, which could see up to 2-4 inches of snow. For snow totals overall in New Jersey, the northern half of the state should see 1 to 2 inches, with the southern half of the state seeing 2 to 4 inches.
Warm up for next week:
From what it looks like as of now, we should see a warm up during early next week. After this weekend's high temperatures in the 20s, for next week high temperatures will instead be in the 30s. By mid week, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s across the area, and sometime later next week, some places may break the 40 degree mark.
Verification for Today: The forecast verified, with highs north and west of NYC in the mid 30s, and for NYC and closer to the coast in the upper 30s, which was in the forecast range.
Tonight: Light snow developing between 1 and 3 AM. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation up to 1/2 inch expected, with up to 1 inch for the immediate coast.
Tomorrow: Snow, mainly before noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches expected.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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Tomorrow's Light Snow:
As the storm moves in from our west, expect snow to begin late tonight. The snow should be generally light but could be moderate at times near the coast. The snow will continue through tomorrow morning's rush hour and should end by the afternoon, with total snow amounts between 1-2 inches for most of the area except the immediate coast and Long Island, which could see up to 2-4 inches of snow. For snow totals overall in New Jersey, the northern half of the state should see 1 to 2 inches, with the southern half of the state seeing 2 to 4 inches.
Warm up for next week:
From what it looks like as of now, we should see a warm up during early next week. After this weekend's high temperatures in the 20s, for next week high temperatures will instead be in the 30s. By mid week, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s across the area, and sometime later next week, some places may break the 40 degree mark.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Jan 6: Longer Range Update
For my forecast verification, I went too warm for last night, with actual lows in the lower to mid 20s northwest of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. My forecast for today was on target, with high temperatures north and west of NYC in the lower 30s, and in NYC and closer to the coast in the mid 30s.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC And closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Cloudy. Light snow developing after 1 to 4 AM. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch expected.
Friday: Light snow, mainly before noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch expected.
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Friday's Light Snow:
I decided to keep my map from yesterday as my final map for this storm. I am expecting light snow to start tomorrow night and continue until Friday afternoon, with a total of near 1 inch of snow. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 20s during this event.
Weekend Forecast:
For this weekend, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected, though it will be relatively cold. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s, with low temperatures in the upper single digits to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Forecast for Next Week:
After this cold spell, we are going to see temperatures starting out below average, warming up to near average. While the early week will start with high temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s, by the second half of the week we will be looking at high temperatures in the lower to possibly upper 30s across the region. Conditions as of now are expected to stay dry through all of next week. By next weekend though, indications are that the cold and stormy pattern may return, starting with the models hinting at the next possible storm threat happening during that time frame.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC And closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Cloudy. Light snow developing after 1 to 4 AM. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch expected.
Friday: Light snow, mainly before noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch expected.
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Friday's Light Snow:
I decided to keep my map from yesterday as my final map for this storm. I am expecting light snow to start tomorrow night and continue until Friday afternoon, with a total of near 1 inch of snow. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 20s during this event.
Weekend Forecast:
For this weekend, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected, though it will be relatively cold. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s, with low temperatures in the upper single digits to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Forecast for Next Week:
After this cold spell, we are going to see temperatures starting out below average, warming up to near average. While the early week will start with high temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s, by the second half of the week we will be looking at high temperatures in the lower to possibly upper 30s across the region. Conditions as of now are expected to stay dry through all of next week. By next weekend though, indications are that the cold and stormy pattern may return, starting with the models hinting at the next possible storm threat happening during that time frame.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Light Snow Map for Friday
Map Created: January 5, 2010
Time Period: January 7-8, 2010
Precipitation Type: Snow
Storm set up: An Alberta Clipper is expected to move through the Ohio Valley, producing moderate snow in that region, and is expected to move towards West Virginia before transferring its energy to a weak, fast moving coastal low that moves away from the region.
Details: The clipper will produce snow amounts of about 3 to 6 inches up to western Pennsylvania and far western New York. The Appalachian Mountains will act as a barrier for the snow, and the clipper will then transfer its energy to a weak storm offshore. This would leave places east of the Appalachians with a light snowfall, generally less than an inch, though with cold temperatures resulting in high snow ratios, some places could be looking at locally higher snowfall amounts with up to 2 inches. The general bust zone with the smallest snow totals is currently expected to be in southern Maine extending to Massachusetts, however this could also end up extending towards New York City if the actual scenario ends up being drier than currently expected.
Forecast for NYC Tri-State Area: Light snow showers will start on Thursday night and continue through Friday, with total accumulations less than an inch of snow.
Time Period: January 7-8, 2010
Precipitation Type: Snow
Storm set up: An Alberta Clipper is expected to move through the Ohio Valley, producing moderate snow in that region, and is expected to move towards West Virginia before transferring its energy to a weak, fast moving coastal low that moves away from the region.
Details: The clipper will produce snow amounts of about 3 to 6 inches up to western Pennsylvania and far western New York. The Appalachian Mountains will act as a barrier for the snow, and the clipper will then transfer its energy to a weak storm offshore. This would leave places east of the Appalachians with a light snowfall, generally less than an inch, though with cold temperatures resulting in high snow ratios, some places could be looking at locally higher snowfall amounts with up to 2 inches. The general bust zone with the smallest snow totals is currently expected to be in southern Maine extending to Massachusetts, however this could also end up extending towards New York City if the actual scenario ends up being drier than currently expected.
Forecast for NYC Tri-State Area: Light snow showers will start on Thursday night and continue through Friday, with total accumulations less than an inch of snow.
Jan 5: Short term update
My forecast from yesterday verified for both last night and today. Low temperatures were in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC and in the low 20s for the NYC area, and high temperatures were in the upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast, which were in the range of my forecast.
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the area.
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I will soon post a discussion and scenario map for the light snow on Friday.
Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the area.
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I will soon post a discussion and scenario map for the light snow on Friday.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Jan 4: Update on Friday Storm
Verification for Sunday: I expected snow showers in the afternoon, with high temperatures in the low 20s north and west of NYC and in the mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. This forecast mainly verified, though some places towards Passaic, NJ and Orange, NY counties had highs in the upper 10s.
Verification for Sunday Night: I expected low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the low 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. This forecast verified.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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No big snowstorm?
In this time range of about 4 days before a storm comes, the forecast models usually begin to agree on a solution. From starting out with a solution that showed what had the potential to become a major snowstorm for a lot of people, the forecast has changed to a not so snowy solution. What changed on the weather models that is causing this solution to be shown?
One thing that was always an issue for this storm is too much cold air. We have a widespread arctic air mass across the United States, which would prevent any coastal low from moving inland. Then, the long range GFS model showed a storm dropping out of the Northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, filling up with moisture, and moving up the East Coast, producing a widespread snow event. However, as the other, more accurate short range models came into this time range, they have showed a solution more different that the GFS. Instead of the low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico, it is unable to do that, and what we get is a weak storm racing through the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic. That type of storm is called an Alberta Clipper, typically due to its origin from Alberta, Canada, and a clipper due to this type of storm being fast moving. Then we have a weak storm that forms in the Southeast, however due to the amount of cold it is unable to move along the coast, and moves out to sea harmlessly. Below is what the NAM model shows for this time period:
Verification for Sunday Night: I expected low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the low 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. This forecast verified.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. A few snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
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No big snowstorm?
In this time range of about 4 days before a storm comes, the forecast models usually begin to agree on a solution. From starting out with a solution that showed what had the potential to become a major snowstorm for a lot of people, the forecast has changed to a not so snowy solution. What changed on the weather models that is causing this solution to be shown?
One thing that was always an issue for this storm is too much cold air. We have a widespread arctic air mass across the United States, which would prevent any coastal low from moving inland. Then, the long range GFS model showed a storm dropping out of the Northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, filling up with moisture, and moving up the East Coast, producing a widespread snow event. However, as the other, more accurate short range models came into this time range, they have showed a solution more different that the GFS. Instead of the low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico, it is unable to do that, and what we get is a weak storm racing through the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic. That type of storm is called an Alberta Clipper, typically due to its origin from Alberta, Canada, and a clipper due to this type of storm being fast moving. Then we have a weak storm that forms in the Southeast, however due to the amount of cold it is unable to move along the coast, and moves out to sea harmlessly. Below is what the NAM model shows for this time period:
Image source: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
For those who do not know how to read this map, this would show a weak storm moving through the Ohio Valley, with light snow in the light green areas, which in this case would be from Illinois to New Jersey/Maryland.
If we were to take the current storm solution, the result would be the clipper moving through the Ohio Valley, producing light snow of 2 to 4 inches, however as it reaches Pennsylvania, the Appalachian Mountains act as a barrier and prevent most of the snow from advancing east. While the clipper would continue moving east and probably start intensifying as it moves offshore, it would not be able to produce too much snow for the area, and we would end up with light snow, with generally light accumulations no more than 2 inches. Also while the forecast models had trouble with forecasting coastal storms this year, they did not have much trouble with forecasting storms that tracked inland, which leads me to believe that we will likely not be seeing a significant trend away from this solution. We will still see some changes, though I am thinking that we are starting to close in on a weak, fast moving storm solution. I will probably make my first scenario map tomorrow.
After this storm though, it will be turning much colder. High temperatures will return into the 20s, and in the case that it ends up being colder than currently expected, interior areas further away from NYC might even see highs in the 10s.
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